Are all price patterns the same? (examples)

[horton]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

How does one play a Yes?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Games_People_Play_(book)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transactional_analysis

The first such game theorized was Why don't you/Yes, but in which one player (White) would pose a problem as if seeking help, and the other player(s) (Black) would offer solutions (the "Why don't you?" suggestion). This game was noticed as many patients played it in therapy and psychiatry sessions, and inspired Berne to identify other interpersonal "games".

White would point out a flaw in every Black player's solution (the "Yes, but" response), until they all gave up in frustration. For example, if someone's life script was "to be hurt many times, and suffer and make others feel bad when I die" a game of "Why Don't You, Yes But" might proceed as follows:

White: I wish I could lose some weight.
Black: Why don't you join a gym?
White: Yes but, I can't afford the payments for a gym.
Black: Why don't you speed walk around your block after you get home from work?
White: Yes but, I don't dare walk alone in my neighborhood after dark.
Black: Why don't you take the stairs at work instead of the elevator?

The secondary gain for White was that he could claim to have justified his problem as insoluble and thus avoid the hard work of internal change; and for Black, to either feel the frustrated martyr ("I was only trying to help") or a superior being, disrespected ("the patient was uncooperative").

Superficially, this game can resemble Adult to Adult interaction (people seeking information or advice), but more often, according to Berne, the game is played by White's helpless Child, and Black's lecturing Parent ego states.

 

[horton]

Quote from horton:

The secondary gain for White was that he could claim to have justified his problem as insoluble and thus avoid the hard work of internal change; and for Black, to either feel the frustrated martyr ("I was only trying to help") or a superior being, disrespected ("the patient was uncooperative").

You are the White player and there have been many Black players playing the role of frustrated martyr or superior being, myself included. But I know it is a game.

 

[horton]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Here's today's chart. I don't really see any price patterns except maybe a 2t that is labeled on the chart.

I just put "pivot points" on my chart after reading about them in IronFist's thread. Historically it seems like sometimes price respects them and sometimes it doesn't, so I'm not sure how useable they are yet.

If anyone would like to share some specific things from these charts related to price action, feel free.

grasshopper you have to start chopping wood and carrying water. Sit in front of a real time chart of the ES and the market internals for 6 months and make a note of every Held Bid, Failed Bid, Held Offer, and Failed Offer in the 2m Interval. Also note what that Event infers will happen next in the 2m Interval and higher Intervals. Also note what was happening in the Currency and Bond markets at each Event. Also note if Oil was relevant. Etc.

 

[horton]

Quote from horton:

grasshopper you have to start chopping wood and carrying water. Sit in front of a real time chart of the ES and the market internals for 6 months and make a note of every Held Bid, Failed Bid, Held Offer, and Failed Offer in the 2m Interval. Also note what that Event infers will happen next in the 2m Interval and higher Intervals. Also note what was happening in the Currency and Bond markets at each Event. Also note if Oil was relevant. Etc.

Also get a subscription to Ransquawk or something like it so you are aware of non-recurring Catalysts like this:

Fitch upgrades Greece to B- from CCC; outlook stable
Rating Agency comments
Says:
- The degree of default risk for private creditors, encapsulated in the previous ‘CCC’ rating has subsided.
- Foreign debt restructuring and debt buy-backs have reduced private creditors share of general government debt to the point (15%, excluding T-bills), where there would be little to be gained financially from any further restructuring.

Analysis details:
- S&P and Fitch now both have Greece at B- and in the high speculative junk rating however Moody's has Greece at C, default rating.

Reaction details:
- Reaction EUR/USD traded higher by 25pips from 1.2959 to 1.2983
- UPDATE: EUR/USD has pared half of the initial upside as this brings the Greek rating in-line with S&P.

Source: Newswires

Tue, 11:12 14-05-2013

 

[horton]

Quote from horton:

Tue, 11:12 14-05-2013

This is Central Time and tells you everything you need to know about the R3 Touched.

 

[Lord.Maushi]

No, price patterns are not all the same, but they have "morphing" capabilities, many like to "morph" and become others, and vice versa, changing the course of price action.

Another consideration is to determine if the continuation or reversal pattern is against the prevailing trend or not, makes a difference.

Keep studying, and it's perfectly fine to doubt the obvious, the classic, the basic and be skeptic.

You seem to be asking the right questions and using the right attitude, except the part about searching for certainty, that you will never find.

 

[relocate]

Quote from relocate:

Jack,what do you think about my method?I`d like to hear your opinion.

Jack,are you there?I`m still waiting for you,hon!

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from horton:

Sit in front of a real time chart of the ES and the market internals

Market internals = DOM?

for 6 months and make a note of every Held Bid, Failed Bid, Held Offer, and Failed Offer in the 2m Interval.

Last time I asked you what held/failed meant, you said this:

A Sequence conveyed by a Bar Interval presents one of six Pivot Events. These are HH, EH, LH, HL, EL, LL. When the most recent xH or xL Pivot is retested it will Hold or Fail. These Events may be viewed using multiple adjacent Bar Intervals, and the lower order HP and FP Events may be observed to anticipate the higher order HP and EP Events. The Held or Failed Bids and Offers presented by observing the DOM are equivalent to Held and Failed Pivot Events in a very small Bar Interval.

I'm going to need examples. What is "multiple adjacent bar intervals?" My command of English is excellent but I really have no idea what you just said.

Why 2m?

Also note what that Event infers will happen next in the 2m Interval and higher Intervals. Also note what was happening in the Currency and Bond markets at each Event. Also note if Oil was relevant. Etc.

How does one know if oil was relevant?

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from horton:

This is Central Time and tells you everything you need to know about the R3 Touched.

Can you explain it to me like I'm 5? I didn't understand most of the previous post and I don't understand why that has anything to do with R3 being touched.

At 11:11 the ES was at 1645.75 and then that announcement came at 11:12 and that's why price went up to 1647.50 over the next 4 minutes? Why? Price's rate of change doesn't seem any different in those 4 minutes than over the rest of the morning leading up to it. If you follow the "trend" price seems like it would've gone up there anyway. I don't see anything happening at 11:12 that seems out of the ordinary.

 

[Lucrum]

This thread is really getting weird, what with all this horton the who and JH cryptic mumbo jumbo.



Has the OP considered simply identifying a trend, waiting for a correction, then simply jumping on board at the first sign the trend is resuming? Obviously there needs to be a trend of some sort in the first place. Also obviously what appeared like a resumption of trend initially will sometimes morph into a congestion or a trend reversal. Hence the need for some risk management. But at least it would give you a starting point.