Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
I know trend followers usually lose. Sounds like they're just randomly entering. I mean think about it, random entry should be at least 50%, right? So if you're doing less than 50% that's worse than random.
I'm not saying every trade has to be a winner, but it sounds like they have poor entries.
Trend following does not work.
You are correct, however, in doing trend monitoring and analysis.
You are also correct in making relative measures. (that is, using two bars to determine what the name of the second bar is.
Second bars are named by using mathematical functions.
By drawing all forms of pairs of bars and naming the second bar in the pair, you will find that you then have a full list of "knowing that you always know".
This means you can log as you monitor.
the list is as follows:
XB long translation
XR short translation.
and 8 others.
XB and XR is the only time money is being made.
Each pair allows you to devide the "space" into tow parts:
The trending part is on the left and the right side is called a change, often referred to as a BO.
If you are on the left side,you CONTINUE TO MAKE MONEY.
If you sit IN THE MARKET after the BO, you are sitting there losing money.
Would you like to begin to do monitoring and analysis to get rich? The answer is NO for you. You have had journals for years.
When I filled in the sheet I gave you today my net at the bottom of the page was 24.2 points for the day. The decimal point is a dividing line (vertical). On the left are points. On the right are ticks. 4 ticks equal one point in the ES.
To trade, WORK must be done.
Two bars in a pair can be named. I'm sure Wikipedia does not have the list because it requires working with a sheet of paper and an eraser and a pencil.
I'm one of those guru's you can't listen to.
But at least from now on you have no excudse for not always knowing whether the dominant direction of the market is long or short. Prediction is never required.