April retail sales?

SanMiguel

SanMiguel

Anyone's guess on the April retail sales figures?
If March was down only 8%, which I find hard to believe it wasn't more, then April is going to be a bloodbath
 
15%. Just pulling a number out of my butt.

The magic numbers are -15, -20 ,-30 from market, unemployment, GPD, respectively.

Do you have a mental or concrete model of how the print could affect the market? Do share. I'll just listen.
 
San, April retail sales is down because almost all stores are closed, besides online sales.
But guess what, it’s not important. Do you know why ? Because everybody is looking when stores will be open.
 
xandman said:
15%. Just pulling a number out of my butt.

The magic numbers are -15, -20 ,-30 from market, unemployment, GPD, respectively.

Do you have a mental or concrete model of how the print could affect the market? Do share. I'll just listen.
More...
The number is 25% in three weeks 16,2% now 26.5m
+ 13m in three weeks will be 25%. As bed as 1932 depression. Very baaad.
 
We may be over-estimating (over-guessing). A lot of people are continually stocking up on consumer durables. I have more Amazon garbage coming in now because of WFH. The big hit is casual dining and I don't believe take out can make up for it.
 
1957may10 said:
San, April retail sales is down because almost all stores are closed, besides online sales.
But guess what, it’s not important. Do you know why ? Because everybody is looking when stores will be open.
More...
I don't think just opening stores will make people spend especially with all the unemployment and the fact that the tax payer will have to foot the bill of all the stimulus and unemployment benefits everywhere. It's going to cut sales for a long time
 
SanMiguel said:
I don't think just opening stores will make people spend especially with all the unemployment and the fact that the tax payer will have to foot the bill of all the stimulus and unemployment benefits everywhere. It's going to cut sales for a long time
More...
Yeah, but it better then nothing. Do you think market is real equate the economy now, but any positive step will be counted.
 
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