April Natural Gas

I was wondering if anyone watches the weather or uses degree days in trading NG. I see there is a cold front coming and it should impact the US over the next week. I guess this will impact the storage report in two weeks. This may help give NG a price pop, but I don't see it holding. Any comments are welcome.
 
Quote from CET:

I was wondering if anyone watches the weather or uses degree days in trading NG. I see there is a cold front coming and it should impact the US over the next week. I guess this will impact the storage report in two weeks. This may help give NG a price pop, but I don't see it holding. Any comments are welcome.
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Um, I think some gas traders may consider the weather...

lol, just kidding. yes, weather (i.e. HDD's and CDD's) is without any shadow of a doubt the biggest driver of natgas demand, by a factor of like 10.

Most shops spend lots of $ on weather data, or even hire a meteorologist (we have 2).
 
Quote from texrex2002:

Um, I think some gas traders may consider the weather...

lol, just kidding. yes, weather (i.e. HDD's and CDD's) is without any shadow of a doubt the biggest driver of natgas demand, by a factor of like 10.

Most shops spend lots of $ on weather data, or even hire a meteorologist (we have 2).
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Most use degree days (heating and cooling) in those shops, along with the base loads of course. I was really referring to individual traders that post here.
 
OK NG traders, faders and haters. Just curious if anyone is playing it here with the new move down today, which appears to be the result of the drop in oil and a weak hurricane forecast by the monkeys in Colorado Springs. All comments welcome.
 
NG is ready to explode. It's the MOST undervalued commodity. Period.
Look at $CRB:UNG - I missed buying it today (was busy with XLF and XLE) but I will do it tomorrow. Sure
 
Quote from sirgiyan:

NG is ready to explode. It's the MOST undervalued commodity. Period.
Look at $CRB:UNG - I missed buying it today (was busy with XLF and XLE) but I will do it tomorrow. Sure
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I will not argue against natty having a corrective move up in the near term. explosive? doubtful. Maybe back to the 4.20/4.40 area again, but looking at it from a relative value against other commodities can be fatal to your account.

You need to fully understand the fundamental dynamics of natty, not just look at it in comparison to general commodities. I have traded natty since 1996, and in that time I have never seen such a bearish supply/demand situation as what is unfolding. We are on track to filling storage to over 4 TCF, which is at/near theoretical maximum, before the end of injection season.

It would take me half the day to explain everything, but this year may be one for the record books, and I think prices can possibly shock people later in the summer (on the downside).

For the record, I am a little long in here currently, I think we need to trade up a little to get it to trade lower.
 
Thanks for the comments. I still see a lot of people fixated on the oil to gas btu ratio and expecting a big bounce based on this discrepancy.
 
PTEN has now rallied from $9.00 to as high as $12.76 in about nine trading days with no movement ( other than down ) in NG.

Their earnings are due out at the end of the month.... This stock could be a GREAT short somewhere in here with a $13.50 stop.

Check the chart.
 
id be interested in hearing from Roach or any of the other NG vets here what they think of the divergence between the 09-11 contracts and the deeper deferreds in 13-14. If one is interested in getting long NG at some point, but doesn't care to try picking a bottom, the 13/14's seem interesting. Thanks for the thread...
 
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