Apple Tell: When everyone says sell the release, its too obvious.

How will it go down...?

  • AAPL will sell back down, maybe to 100-110... JUST AS EVERYONE EXPECTS

    Votes: 7 25.0%
  • It'll be locked at 125-130 until 3 months from now, when earnings start telling a story

    Votes: 8 28.6%
  • Its going up...

    Votes: 13 46.4%

  • Total voters
    28
I read today that there are 19 million people interested in this Iphone, where this hype is coming from is beyond me. I have never seen a phone of this type receive so much attention when in the last few years there have been great improvements to the cell phone that go completely unnoticed. The only phone I know of that has really shown its looks is the Motorola Razr, this phone is one of the hottest sellers in the last few years. The Iphone to me is being hyped due to the AAPL signature. I think it will be a hot seller at first, but where it goes from there is anyones guess.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

This is a fascinating. When all the analysts, journalists, and traders out there are universally calling sell the news, one has to wonder what is actually going to happen upon the iphone release. A few weeks ago, my inclination was the same, especially considering the valuation is pricing in success before its delivered. But with everyone in the media and on these trader boards getting overly bearish, I don't think its that simple.


I'm thinking the actual result for traders will likely be unspectactular ... pinning to 125 area for a few months. I'm thinking the only likely profitable trade will be the seemingly riskiest one: selling volatility (thats already relatively low).

since volatility is low, long options traders will get screwed, shorts will be disappointed ... even among -expected- bad news criticism on iphone.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...8BD-C306-4CCD-90CF-F5DAE5617D4D}&siteid=yhoof

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-E3F8-44B1-9739-1024AAE7EFDF}&dist=TNMostRead

AAPL will rally on Ipod phone release.
 
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