Apple Tell: When everyone says sell the release, its too obvious.

How will it go down...?

  • AAPL will sell back down, maybe to 100-110... JUST AS EVERYONE EXPECTS

    Votes: 7 25.0%

  • It'll be locked at 125-130 until 3 months from now, when earnings start telling a story

    Votes: 8 28.6%

  • Its going up...

    Votes: 13 46.4%
  • Total voters
    28
S

scriabinop23

This is a fascinating. When all the analysts, journalists, and traders out there are universally calling sell the news, one has to wonder what is actually going to happen upon the iphone release. A few weeks ago, my inclination was the same, especially considering the valuation is pricing in success before its delivered. But with everyone in the media and on these trader boards getting overly bearish, I don't think its that simple.


I'm thinking the actual result for traders will likely be unspectactular ... pinning to 125 area for a few months. I'm thinking the only likely profitable trade will be the seemingly riskiest one: selling volatility (thats already relatively low).

since volatility is low, long options traders will get screwed, shorts will be disappointed ... even among -expected- bad news criticism on iphone.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...8BD-C306-4CCD-90CF-F5DAE5617D4D}&siteid=yhoof

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-E3F8-44B1-9739-1024AAE7EFDF}&dist=TNMostRead
 
You didn't have the option of $110-$125 which is honestly what I think it can trade at if there's no major market correction.

They'll show demand is high because they're only making so many...so whether revs show anything or not they're going to show high demand.
 
Quote from SiSePuede!:

You didn't have the option of $110-$125 which is honestly what I think it can trade at if there's no major market correction.

They'll show demand is high because they're only making so many...so whether revs show anything or not they're going to show high demand.
More...

OK. Select the second option for that.
:)
 
Quote from dtrader98:

There were a ton of blogs and barrons calling for shorting appl around 85, today's price shows the outcome of that.
More...

Yea, but much different this time. PEG ratio on apple was below 1.00 and iphone was far away, etc.
 
Eventually AAPL will buy out MSFT and Jobs will get back the 4.5 billion he left on the table in spades.

The secret sauce is white. Yes white coloring on everything.

Now you know.


B000009B6E.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg
 
Quote from a529612:

It will trade flat. All those long straddles will get raped. :D
More...

me thinks selling strangles might be a good trade, maybe a little heavier on the put side. (since i'm biased long slightly)
 
Hey Guys, Give It A Rest. AAPL is not going down at this point.
There may be some modest profit taking during the next 2 weeks
But There is too much momentum starting to build toward the
release date now. The only thing that will stop AAPL from
rising at this point is the company itself.

Please check out the remarks below and the link that follows:

MARKETTALK
Edited by John Shipman Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
(call: 201 938 5171; e-mail:john.shipman@dowjones.com):


12:25 (Dow Jones) "Apple must fall some day - there's no debate there. The question is when," Om Malik writes at gigaOm. "The company and its CEO may both be overhyped, but there remains so much promise in Apple's near-term future -
early iPhone sales, Leopard, increased mainstream comfort with Macs - it's not likely to come for a few quarters." AAPL seems overdue for a modest correction,he writes, but after that "the only thing standing between Apple and $160 may be its own potential missteps." AAPL up 2.6% at $123.68.

http://gigaom.com/2007/06/18/the-great-apple-stock-debate/
 
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