Apple Earnings play

Quote from Optrader1:

Jan's straddle: not bad. May's IV dropped much more though.
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Well yeah, we all assumed that. Certainly not a win on Jan at 50.00 last.
 
No, the Jan short straddle does not look like it was a good risk/reward trade after all at all. A small gain when we have best case scenario.
 
Quote from Optrader1:

No, the Jan short straddle does not look like it was a good risk/reward trade after all at all. A small gain when we have best case scenario.
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Actually best case scenario would produce a really nice gain. What we have is a bad case scenerio where the stock goes nowehere and vols barely drop in the back months.
 
The Jan should touch 48.00 fairval by today's close. I plan on holding on a touch of 45.00 or through the Monday following May expiration. I'll pull the position on a touch of $144 or $178; ~symmetrical to the implied forward on Jan spot. AAPL vols rise with spot within a sigma, so I's like to see lower spot.
 
Quote from Optrader1:

OC, I meant best case scenario in terms of price.
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ok my bad.... the good news is that it made a little bit of money at least so not a total wash.
 
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