Apple: A Major Short 11-28-2008
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
BLSHi is stock_trad3r's evil twin.
BLSHi can only post post copies of negative news (tell me something new, will you?) and says every major stock is going down the toilet.
I think he's in a competition with stock_trad3r to see if he can outnumber stock_trad3r's bullish posts with his bearish posts. Meanwhile, neither one contributies anything productive to trading discussion.
One says stock prices will rebound to the moon, the other says stock prices will continue sliding forever, as the US enters the Great Depression II.
The day that BLSHi posts something bullish, is the day to short with both fists.
BLSHi can only post post copies of negative news (tell me something new, will you?) and says every major stock is going down the toilet.
I think he's in a competition with stock_trad3r to see if he can outnumber stock_trad3r's bullish posts with his bearish posts. Meanwhile, neither one contributies anything productive to trading discussion.
One says stock prices will rebound to the moon, the other says stock prices will continue sliding forever, as the US enters the Great Depression II.
The day that BLSHi posts something bullish, is the day to short with both fists.
You must have missed my past calls.
I was bullish last December and then saw a great and ominous trend in the employment and foreclosure (and not just residential) rates about to make giant waves. Since them bearish all the way - true (can you blame me?).
I've been screaming 'Fire!' since February '08, while stck_turdler's portfolio vaporized like a fart in the wind.
Search 'Get The Hell Out' Parts I and II, and 'You Think Things Are Bad, Right?' in thread titles.
You fail the research test.
I was bullish last December and then saw a great and ominous trend in the employment and foreclosure (and not just residential) rates about to make giant waves. Since them bearish all the way - true (can you blame me?).
I've been screaming 'Fire!' since February '08, while stck_turdler's portfolio vaporized like a fart in the wind.
Search 'Get The Hell Out' Parts I and II, and 'You Think Things Are Bad, Right?' in thread titles.
You fail the research test.
Great timing on your blatant 'wrongness.'
Maybe it was just coincidence or bad luck on your part, but either way, it looks so bad - because it was so arrogant.
Maybe it was just coincidence or bad luck on your part, but either way, it looks so bad - because it was so arrogant.
There is never a good time to short apple. Why would anyone want to short one of the strongest consumer stocks in existence?
With no discussion of valuation, balance sheet, long-term earnings outlook, market expectations, % float sold short, or risk factors for a short position, this can hardly be considered an analysis, let alone justification for a "major short".
AAPL is a high beta stock that has only slightly underperformed the S&P during a killer bear market, so you don't even have technicals or momentum on your side.
There must be dozens of better shorts than this stock IMO. In my experience, the best stocks to short are those whose core business sector is collapsing, have high debt levels and leverage, and have made major management mistakes in terms of product quality, brand, or capital allocation. Look at the death spirals of the last 12 months - CFC, LEH, MBI, ABK, BSC, C, most homebuilders. That is the stuff you want to look for. At the moment, the outlook for retail and consumer finance looks far more bleak than for tech, so that's another area to look which isn't quite so played out as real estate and bank shorts. Apple faces a rough environment, but their products, brand, and capital allocation have been very strong, and their balance sheet is extremely conservative with good levels of cash.
AAPL is a high beta stock that has only slightly underperformed the S&P during a killer bear market, so you don't even have technicals or momentum on your side.
There must be dozens of better shorts than this stock IMO. In my experience, the best stocks to short are those whose core business sector is collapsing, have high debt levels and leverage, and have made major management mistakes in terms of product quality, brand, or capital allocation. Look at the death spirals of the last 12 months - CFC, LEH, MBI, ABK, BSC, C, most homebuilders. That is the stuff you want to look for. At the moment, the outlook for retail and consumer finance looks far more bleak than for tech, so that's another area to look which isn't quite so played out as real estate and bank shorts. Apple faces a rough environment, but their products, brand, and capital allocation have been very strong, and their balance sheet is extremely conservative with good levels of cash.
Uh.....arrogant?....no. I simply was stating the fact that all you do is post unsubstatiated threads telling people to go short this and that all over this website.
And no, I never said to go long with AAPL, so I wasn't "wrong". I don't trade stocks, so I am agnostic on AAPL.
You got a one day retrace yesterday (which has now been erased) in a strong up move from the low on 11/20, , so I wouldn't be bragging that you were "right" if I were you.
If AAPL falls to a daily close below $80 in the next 2 weeks, I'll be back to congratulate you on your correct call.
If on the other hand, it continues to move upwards coming off the W pattern on the daily chart, then I expect you to issue a mea culpa.
