Apparently ”bull market” is an ambiguous term

Visaria said:
33% actually.
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%% More than that;
with slippage, commissions.................................... You Maybe right[ gross, not net] to break even; but 50% loss requires over a 100% gain , to break even,counting slippage.
And really,Visaria, break even is a loss unless one wants to work for nothing+ who pays the power bill+ taxes?? [Or could call a loss= business exspences/education.:D:D]
 
Overnight said:
Other than that, everything that thinks long, wins in the long term. So the "trend" is always up with temporary pullbacks.
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Not always.

The bear markets 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 were in down trends.

Individual issues can be bearish for years and never recover.
 
Scataphagos said:
Not always.

The bear markets 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 were in down trends.

Individual issues can be bearish for years and never recover.
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You missed something I typed I think?


"Since every broad index inception, the trend has been up." I did not speak of individual issues. I spoke of the broad market indeces.

If the market keeps going up and up and up, where is the total downtrend? A bear market of 2 years does not outmatch a bull market of 10 years. The trend is always UP! You just need to define how long a "trend" is.
 
Scataphagos said:
If a move doesn't change the trend direction, it's just "noise".

That's a lot different from today where a dip of 3 days brings out cries of "where's the Fed? Where's the PPT to stop the decline"?

It's all "intervention and manipulation" whereas years ago the markets were about "value and price discovery".

There's another current ET thread about "do markets change"? Of course they do. Years ago, they were all about the retail investor. Then, institutional dominance. Now it's HFT, the PPT and Fed intervention. Sure, they change.... but knowing that doesn't do any of us retail screen jockeys any good.

:(
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Exactly. Who cares if market changes or not. Has nothing to do with waking up tommoorw and making some money trading.
 
Overnight said:
You missed something I typed I think?


"Since every broad index inception, the trend has been up." I did not speak of individual issues. I spoke of the broad market indeces.

If the market keeps going up and up and up, where is the total downtrend? A bear market of 2 years does not outmatch a bull market of 10 years. The trend is always UP! You just need to define how long a "trend" is.
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Thinking "the trend is always up, so nothing else matters" isn't productive for trading.
 
Scataphagos said:
Thinking "the trend is always up, so nothing else matters" isn't productive for trading.
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Scat, the trend is always up for a swing/position "trader". The history proves it. I have tried shorting in sim all these months, and it has proven disastrous. But my long sim trades are all victorious.
 
Overnight said:
Scat, the trend is always up for a swing/position "trader". The history proves it. I have tried shorting in sim all these months, and it has proven disastrous. But my long sim trades are all victorious.
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Your frame of reference is too short. Should be longer than the recent relentless bull market. It has been a "BTFD, give the benefit of the doubt to the longs" market. It isn't always thus.

(You say your "shorts have been disatrous". No surprise. They mostly should have been.)
 
I digress, I see this is the "stocks" forum, not the index futures forum. I suppose I am in the wrong place to be discussing this. My bad.
 
I cannot consider a person a trader that just loads up their account with capital and buys the ES dips...

ES

Overnight said:
Scat, the trend is always up for a swing/position "trader". The history proves it. I have tried shorting in sim all these months, and it has proven disastrous. But my long sim trades are all victorious.
More...
 
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