Originally posted by Gordon Gekko
OldTrader, your opinion on this please:
continued...
Gordon:
Well I admit I just skimmed this....that was VERY long! LOL.
But if I may sum up I believe what the guy said was that he thinks he is wrong when he enters a trade, that the market must prove it right, and if it doesn't, he gets out rather than waiting for the stop.
Actually if you go back and look at some of my prior posts, I can remember that in one of them I talked about the trade "running according to form". (More horse analogies). That sounds like what this guy is trying to say.
I don't enter into a trade thinking that I'm wrong, or right for that matter. To me I just make a trade thinking it's going to do some particular thing. Once the trade is on I will have certain expectations. If it starts to act contrary to those expectations then I get out.
For example, I noticed on the one minute ES chart on Friday at 14:11 EST the ES was trading up near 884.00, threatening to breakout of a consolidation pattern it had been in with a top at the 884.00 area. Theoretically then, a trade to 884.25 would break this thing out. However, I see a large seller at 884.25....600+ contracts offered there, or maybe it was 884.50. In any case, I watch as it breaks out, takes the sellers offering, then trades to 885.00. So far so good.
Now what would be normal, running according to form, would be perhaps a brief test of 884.00....and then accelerate higher. It got a brief test, trys to rally, then fails and acclerates back down through the breakout point. Had I been long, that would have been all I needed to see to close my position immediately. And if you take a look at the chart you'll see that it took a decent little drop.
It is probably the OLDEST tenet of trading.....if the reason you put the trade ceases to be true, you close the position. Again, I call this running according to form.
Now what this requires of course is KNOWING how it's supposed to "run". A guy like Aphie right now doesn't have a clue, so he has to wait for his stop to be executed. This might give back more money than necessary, but the bottomline is that unless you know what's supposed to happen, you can't know when it isn't happening, now can you?
I have suggested getting Edwards and Magee Technical Analysis of Stock Trends for most people....the bible. This will acquaint you with some patterns. Then if you closely observe the charts, you'll see those patterns repeating....some working, some not working. And you'll begin to see that when something stops working that's a big red flag.
The best trades usually work immediately for me. They are trades that start immediately in my favor, never creating any "heat", and do all the right stuff. I stick with those. Selling out of those quickly is almost always a mistake. When it's running according to form, or perhaps BETTER than form, ride it...these will probably turn out to be your biggest winners over time.
OldTrader