Aphie's REAL Trading Journal
- Thread starter aphexcoil
- Start date
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it's just that I can't get Aphex's earlier posts out of my mind where he talks about how day trading is just something he's gonna do to put himself through med school, or something like that. If you could hear my radio in the background you'd hear an old stones song. What's the title? You know it. Let it bleed.
You're right. In fact, when I look at the 250t graph I usually use, I basically went totally against the trend.
I guess I was just excited that the account was finally open and ready to trade and I just went in with "guns blazing" with no plan and total disregard to everything.
Tomorrow is a new day.
Aphie no offense man but it sounds like you're at the salad bar. Let's see, a little of this, a sprinkle of that, ooh that looks interesting...
Do you have a plan- a serious, genuine business plan?
Imagine you have a rich uncle willing to grubstake you 100K if you can provide him a solid outline of your methodology and why that methodology will be profitable. He's a skeptical hardass but willing to read what you've written down. Would you be able to convince him with what you've got now?
Even if you are totally discretionary, you should be able to articulate and justify, in clear words on paper, the reasoning behind every action you take. Discretionary traders are ultimately systematic too- they just trade conceptual patterns instead of mechanical ones.
When do you enter and why. When do you add. When do you exit and why. What is your planned risk per trade. What is your typical R:R target per trade. What is your survivability quotient (i.e. how many losses in a row would it take to kill you). How feasible is your planned risk in regards to matching up w/ real world volatility risk (i.e. what would a five point jump do to your half point stop). Are your range captures realistic or too close to random. Are you using viable software or trying to get by with a cheap piece of crap. On and on.
Intuition and gut feel are great tools- for old hands who have been trading for years and years. New traders need all the rigidity and concrete support structure they can get. If you don't have a reason in writing for what you are doing, don't do it. Realtime journalization- putting down your thoughts as they occur and thus seeing your rules and experience evolve together- is one of the most powerful things you can do. But you have to be willing to see it through for months or years before you get anywhere, and you CANNOT let yourself get stuck.
Trading the mini with five grand will be an almost impossible task UNLESS you are planning to continously fund the account as you make regular tuition drawdowns over time. Think of that five grand as an initial deposit on your tuition rather than the whole ball of wax, because you got mucho payments ahead of you ESPECIALLY if you want to trade an instrument that can wipe out one percent of your account with every handle up or down. If 5K is the best you can start with, you are probably looking at frequent drawdowns to $2500, followed by work and save breaks where you earn back the cash to bump it back up, many many times. Dozens of times maybe.
I can tell you one thing though, being a dilettante will destroy you very quickly. The best thing you can do is this: find a mechanical system you like- it doesn't have to be great, it just needs to not suck- and then tweak it and adjust it as your own knowledge and sense of style grows.
And be prepared to abandon the e-mini. I'm not saying sticking with the mini is bad, not at all- maybe you'll get rich with it who knows- only saying that you do not want to lock in any preconceived notions at this stage in the game. Be willing to question and/or discard anything and everything if it feels necessary (what you put down you can always pick back up again also). -You might come to find that sticking to one instrument- or that daytrading for quick hits in general- does not fit your personal style. Not saying you will find this to be the case, only saying keep an open mind and a clear head.
You have a seriously long road in front of you, you are going to fall on your face more times than you can count, and the sooner you get dead serious about it the better off you will be.
Do you have a plan- a serious, genuine business plan?
Imagine you have a rich uncle willing to grubstake you 100K if you can provide him a solid outline of your methodology and why that methodology will be profitable. He's a skeptical hardass but willing to read what you've written down. Would you be able to convince him with what you've got now?
Even if you are totally discretionary, you should be able to articulate and justify, in clear words on paper, the reasoning behind every action you take. Discretionary traders are ultimately systematic too- they just trade conceptual patterns instead of mechanical ones.
When do you enter and why. When do you add. When do you exit and why. What is your planned risk per trade. What is your typical R:R target per trade. What is your survivability quotient (i.e. how many losses in a row would it take to kill you). How feasible is your planned risk in regards to matching up w/ real world volatility risk (i.e. what would a five point jump do to your half point stop). Are your range captures realistic or too close to random. Are you using viable software or trying to get by with a cheap piece of crap. On and on.
Intuition and gut feel are great tools- for old hands who have been trading for years and years. New traders need all the rigidity and concrete support structure they can get. If you don't have a reason in writing for what you are doing, don't do it. Realtime journalization- putting down your thoughts as they occur and thus seeing your rules and experience evolve together- is one of the most powerful things you can do. But you have to be willing to see it through for months or years before you get anywhere, and you CANNOT let yourself get stuck.
Trading the mini with five grand will be an almost impossible task UNLESS you are planning to continously fund the account as you make regular tuition drawdowns over time. Think of that five grand as an initial deposit on your tuition rather than the whole ball of wax, because you got mucho payments ahead of you ESPECIALLY if you want to trade an instrument that can wipe out one percent of your account with every handle up or down. If 5K is the best you can start with, you are probably looking at frequent drawdowns to $2500, followed by work and save breaks where you earn back the cash to bump it back up, many many times. Dozens of times maybe.
I can tell you one thing though, being a dilettante will destroy you very quickly. The best thing you can do is this: find a mechanical system you like- it doesn't have to be great, it just needs to not suck- and then tweak it and adjust it as your own knowledge and sense of style grows.
And be prepared to abandon the e-mini. I'm not saying sticking with the mini is bad, not at all- maybe you'll get rich with it who knows- only saying that you do not want to lock in any preconceived notions at this stage in the game. Be willing to question and/or discard anything and everything if it feels necessary (what you put down you can always pick back up again also). -You might come to find that sticking to one instrument- or that daytrading for quick hits in general- does not fit your personal style. Not saying you will find this to be the case, only saying keep an open mind and a clear head.
You have a seriously long road in front of you, you are going to fall on your face more times than you can count, and the sooner you get dead serious about it the better off you will be.
Aphex,
I attached an image of ES for you to get an overview of the day.
You shorted at the vertical line which I guess you where playing a fade on the noon low? is this correct. Shorting in this zone I feel a stop at least above 863 or so would have been prudent.
Notice in the morning the market quickly double topped at the direction swing number and the bottom of that double top was exactly the 50 day moving average. on the second sell off to the 50 day it broke and then the 50 DEMA became resistance and most of the smart money would be short with stops above this number.
look at the end of the day buy program run up to exactly yesterdays low and immediately pull back.
This is how you need to trade the S&P to be successful.
I attached an image of ES for you to get an overview of the day.
You shorted at the vertical line which I guess you where playing a fade on the noon low? is this correct. Shorting in this zone I feel a stop at least above 863 or so would have been prudent.
Notice in the morning the market quickly double topped at the direction swing number and the bottom of that double top was exactly the 50 day moving average. on the second sell off to the 50 day it broke and then the 50 DEMA became resistance and most of the smart money would be short with stops above this number.
look at the end of the day buy program run up to exactly yesterdays low and immediately pull back.
This is how you need to trade the S&P to be successful.
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