rather than try to hold open a 6E, or even a M6E, position for 6+ months, considering the cost/hassle to roll, and the mark to market aspect, i've found it easier to sleep at night on a euro short through holding spreads, or outright calls, on EUO.
anyone else finding this as an alternative to a short EUR/USD forex position, or shorting a 6E / M6E futures contract?
of course, i'm not looking for the same sort of moves as the futures/forex markets, but still, i'd rather capture the meat of the collapse from 1.30 to 1.18/1.20ish which i feel will happen over the coming summer/fall/winter. i feel i'm confident on direction, but i am not so confident on time/strength of the move. i think any back touch of 1.30/1.32 will be very short lived at this point.
all this said, and using a piece of string and an imaginary ruler (roughly comparing the three instruments), i'm thinking EUO is due for a move through 21 to play the 23-26 range before the end of the year, with support at 20.
i'll be getting into call calendars for NOV/JAN at 24 and 25, as well as, debit spreads with call verticals for NOV 23/24. if i can get these on for <.15 each, that's great, if i can hold off and/or get fancy with trying to leg into them, trying to time the last gasp bounce of the euro, i might get them on cheaper than that (free would be ideal!) if i chase the euro down here, or hit the high ask of the day or just buy the spread at the market (we've all done it), i might pay .20 each. i'm in no rush, a few here, a few there, over the next week or two.
of course, i'm looking for the verts to pay out .80 or the full buck, come NOV, if eur/usd sits around/under roughly 1.24. i'm bearish euro, so i think this is possible, even with a bounce from 1.18/1.20, or with a back kiss of 1.30/1.32.
with the calendars, i'm hoping the pair does stave of utter collapse sub-1.18 to 1.15 and towards parity. (i'll still have time to get out easily, with a smile.) i feel there will be support at 1.20, even if from a devaluing dollar rather than a strengthening euro, at that point of the global train wreck. if there is no next step down in the pair, but only a mild roll over accident, my calendars will help pay for the verts, it will be a wash after commission, or slightly positive.
if all the world goes happy and the euro finds legs above $1.30 through the elections, i'm out a few hundred, if the pair is below $1.24 come the vote, i'm up a couple thousand. i can sleep at night with that one at least.
maybe i'll update, maybe i wont, but i fully expect someone to let me know when they are only worth .05 either way,... i'll let everyone know if they grow.
thanks for reading,.. all critics welcome,..
good luck to all!
-pfl
anyone else finding this as an alternative to a short EUR/USD forex position, or shorting a 6E / M6E futures contract?
of course, i'm not looking for the same sort of moves as the futures/forex markets, but still, i'd rather capture the meat of the collapse from 1.30 to 1.18/1.20ish which i feel will happen over the coming summer/fall/winter. i feel i'm confident on direction, but i am not so confident on time/strength of the move. i think any back touch of 1.30/1.32 will be very short lived at this point.
all this said, and using a piece of string and an imaginary ruler (roughly comparing the three instruments), i'm thinking EUO is due for a move through 21 to play the 23-26 range before the end of the year, with support at 20.
i'll be getting into call calendars for NOV/JAN at 24 and 25, as well as, debit spreads with call verticals for NOV 23/24. if i can get these on for <.15 each, that's great, if i can hold off and/or get fancy with trying to leg into them, trying to time the last gasp bounce of the euro, i might get them on cheaper than that (free would be ideal!) if i chase the euro down here, or hit the high ask of the day or just buy the spread at the market (we've all done it), i might pay .20 each. i'm in no rush, a few here, a few there, over the next week or two.
of course, i'm looking for the verts to pay out .80 or the full buck, come NOV, if eur/usd sits around/under roughly 1.24. i'm bearish euro, so i think this is possible, even with a bounce from 1.18/1.20, or with a back kiss of 1.30/1.32.
with the calendars, i'm hoping the pair does stave of utter collapse sub-1.18 to 1.15 and towards parity. (i'll still have time to get out easily, with a smile.) i feel there will be support at 1.20, even if from a devaluing dollar rather than a strengthening euro, at that point of the global train wreck. if there is no next step down in the pair, but only a mild roll over accident, my calendars will help pay for the verts, it will be a wash after commission, or slightly positive.
if all the world goes happy and the euro finds legs above $1.30 through the elections, i'm out a few hundred, if the pair is below $1.24 come the vote, i'm up a couple thousand. i can sleep at night with that one at least.
maybe i'll update, maybe i wont, but i fully expect someone to let me know when they are only worth .05 either way,... i'll let everyone know if they grow.
thanks for reading,.. all critics welcome,..
good luck to all!
-pfl
