Anyone trading with a profit objective of $100 A WEEK?

Thanks much NoD, I PM replied. Looks great, really!
Ninna,
I take your point that skewing PT/SL skews the occurrences as well. But doesn't that apply only if market moves are perfectly random, which is a pretty restrictive assumption? (unless, that is, you still believe in Efficient Market Theory)
Meaning if the trend does not revert by more that your SL, then PT/SL should skew the outcome as well?
Just asking. Obviously, I'm not sure...
 
Quote from taojaxx:

I'm retired and don't need more than my current income. Will be more than happy if I can make enough to buy a weekly bottle of good value Champagne ($29.99 Perrier-Jouët on sale at the local liquor store) and a Saturday night dinner at Chili's or TGIF or Ruby Tuesday with the wifey.

Just asking for shared experience if any: Which markets? Position size? Ratio between take profit (TP) and stop loss (SL)?

I plan to trade mostly ES, but also GC, CL, (maybe NG) on IB TWS with $40k in equity, so low commission nice access to markets and obviously razor thin take profit and stop loss.
My problem is this is obviously a tiny account in the greater scheme of things but even if $100 a week probably sounds like chump change to them all ET top guns, that'd be a 13% ROI on a $40k account.
I don't have much of an edge, except I don't need the money (so no error inducing stress).
Just wondering in particular what the correct TP/SL ratio is. Planning to start with TP 0.80% and SL 0.60%. Does that make any sense? Or should I go golfing rather?
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I have a note from somebody bruno? Look at weekly trend, calculate 50% weekly range, if trend long, long above 50% level stop is the prior 50% level, same for short.
 
If you are going to guess which direction the market is going...


Set your stops at 4 point loss, limit at 8 point gain... Then i guess just flop around and try and guess 50/50....
 
Quote from taojaxx:

Thanks Nkhoi,
Noted. Not sure I follow,though. Example with numbers would be most welcome.

TJ
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Go for it, TJ. But I would recommend putting no more than the minimum or 5k in a futures account it's all you need.
 
Nkhoi,

Clearer with the chart.

Jackie,

I'm thinking If you guess 50/50 and have 8 point TP and 4 point SL, then Ninna has a point: you get stopped out twice as frequently as you hit your TP and you're down the commish.
 
Quote from taojaxx:

Nkhoi,

Clearer with the chart.
...
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I don't have any note on how he decides weekly trend my wild guess is you just watch 50% numbers continue to go up or down.
 
Quote from taojaxx:

Nkhoi,

Clearer with the chart.

Jackie,

I'm thinking If you guess 50/50 and have 8 point TP and 4 point SL, then Ninna has a point: you get stopped out twice as frequently as you hit your TP and you're down the commish.
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Wait till the market is in at an inflection point, 4 or 5 point move is not the bots just jerking the market around, if it moves 5 points from a level, it means its probably going to move around 8-10 points in the same direction...


Then you can be wrong around twice as many times as you are right and still break even... 1 futures contract is 2.00 commission, thats 4.00 round trip. If you are right 50 percent of the time then you will be making money..


If you have no edge, whats else can you expect..
 
Quote from taojaxx:

Hi Ninna,
Thx for the advice.
I was thinking (naively?) on short time frames who's got a consistent edge? Not sure even Goldman Sachs knows (or rather wants to know) whether the market is going to move up .8% before moving down .6% in the coming hour or so (which is the bet I am making with that TP/SL combination). So SL below TP should in the long run be some kind of an edge.
Does that make sense or am I fooling myself?


TJ
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No edge there, ESPECIALLY not in ES. Fooling yourself.
 
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