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Anyone trading next week seasonality ?
- Thread starter TrAndy2022
- Start date
Found another seasonal indicator why USD should be stronger next week.
Here: https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/trading-the-week-after-futures-expiration-in-euro-bund/
It looks like FGBL is rising because of lower interest rates then in Germany. That means weaker EURUSD thus a stronger USD, what do you think here ?
Here: https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/trading-the-week-after-futures-expiration-in-euro-bund/
It looks like FGBL is rising because of lower interest rates then in Germany. That means weaker EURUSD thus a stronger USD, what do you think here ?
Some charts for the entire month/weeks spanning September for the last few years. Each large horizontal line represents one week.
As can be seen, if it's a weak September, we usually see the low of the month in the last week of the month or the week prior. Short sample size of course.
My current view is that we have not seen the lows yet in September, but I'm not married to that view. As I said earlier, I will use September seasonality as a supporting parameter giving more confidence in the short side, but I will not trade on that basis alone.
September 2021
September 2020
September 2019
September 2018
September 2017
September 2016
September 2008
As can be seen, if it's a weak September, we usually see the low of the month in the last week of the month or the week prior. Short sample size of course.
My current view is that we have not seen the lows yet in September, but I'm not married to that view. As I said earlier, I will use September seasonality as a supporting parameter giving more confidence in the short side, but I will not trade on that basis alone.
September 2021
September 2020
September 2019
September 2018
September 2017
September 2016
September 2008
So, from a weekly perspective, we have two successive Outside Weeks. The prior week going higher and closing at top of the range. This last week going from top of the range and closing at the lower end.
Over the last 17 years that only happened once. Unless there's something wrong with my dataset (I don't think so).
The sample size is ridiculously low, but behold what happened the following week. Closing down 6.79 %. And a low at 11.19 % down.
Interesting. I'm getting increased confidence in pressing the short side here.
Over the last 17 years that only happened once. Unless there's something wrong with my dataset (I don't think so).
The sample size is ridiculously low, but behold what happened the following week. Closing down 6.79 %. And a low at 11.19 % down.
Interesting. I'm getting increased confidence in pressing the short side here.
A look at where we're at and where we might be going...
SPX Monthly
Price is contained between supply at approx. 4150 and demand at approx 3785. There was a failure to breakout of this zone starting at the 10th of August. It looked promising for a while, but turned out to be a massive failure.
SPX Weekly
Nothing exciting here. Price have been channeling downwards ever since we broke the long term trend line at the end of January. Some viscious rallies in between here, but they've all been sold. The bullish sentiment seemed really strong at the end of last week, but that went down the drain with that CPI print.
SPX Daily
Channeling downwards in a messy channel. 3900 was a good demand zone, but it didn't hold by end of last week.
There's now an open gap at ~ 3900. Below that, we have a gap at ~ 3790 and finally one near the June low at ~ 3675.
3675 is about 200 points lower from Friday's Close and that's within normal in these conditions. Merely 5.4 % down. I would not be surprised to see that tagged by end of last week, but let's take one day at a time and not get ahead of ourselves.
TL;DR:
I read current market conditions as fairly bearish and will not hesistate to push or hold a short in the week to come, but I need to see how the market behaves first. Trying to get back into that 3900 range and failing to do so can be a great short entry.
If, however, we should trade convincingly into that zone I may read that as a short term bottom being in place and lean long instead.
I think the market is a bit unhinged/loose at the moment and making it harder to predict medium-term, but what we can do is to have a good sense of where we're at and where we might be headed.
FOMC is at Wednesday and that is likely to be a game changer making for the next major move.
SPX Monthly
Price is contained between supply at approx. 4150 and demand at approx 3785. There was a failure to breakout of this zone starting at the 10th of August. It looked promising for a while, but turned out to be a massive failure.
SPX Weekly
Nothing exciting here. Price have been channeling downwards ever since we broke the long term trend line at the end of January. Some viscious rallies in between here, but they've all been sold. The bullish sentiment seemed really strong at the end of last week, but that went down the drain with that CPI print.
SPX Daily
Channeling downwards in a messy channel. 3900 was a good demand zone, but it didn't hold by end of last week.
There's now an open gap at ~ 3900. Below that, we have a gap at ~ 3790 and finally one near the June low at ~ 3675.
3675 is about 200 points lower from Friday's Close and that's within normal in these conditions. Merely 5.4 % down. I would not be surprised to see that tagged by end of last week, but let's take one day at a time and not get ahead of ourselves.
TL;DR:
I read current market conditions as fairly bearish and will not hesistate to push or hold a short in the week to come, but I need to see how the market behaves first. Trying to get back into that 3900 range and failing to do so can be a great short entry.
If, however, we should trade convincingly into that zone I may read that as a short term bottom being in place and lean long instead.
I think the market is a bit unhinged/loose at the moment and making it harder to predict medium-term, but what we can do is to have a good sense of where we're at and where we might be headed.
FOMC is at Wednesday and that is likely to be a game changer making for the next major move.
