Anyone trading next week seasonality ?
- Thread starter TrAndy2022
- Start date
So no one is trading it, I am resuming correctly ? Then it might work next week, will see. But I am still not sure if I should make a trade with it or not. There is still time on this weekend. Let me know other opinions. Really no one made positive experience with seasonality at all or want to trade this (or variants) next week ?
The only thing I can say is ...
The market is currently bearish,
Odds are in favor of shorting the market.
Reward to risk wise it doesn't look optimal,
A short on September 13th would have been better.
Previous move on SPX was from 4200 to 3886 (-7.30%)
Right from top to bottom we're @ (-6.80%)
There is room for 1% to 4% downside.
Based on previous actions (Not Bulletproof),
I'd rather wait for a turnaround and trade the pullback.
Or wait a bit longer and sell short the pullback.
More like a no man's land currently
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That I was saying indirectly that because of Powell and FOMC meeting next week the markets will tank again and thus the USD gets stronger. Otherwise with no expected move here it would not make sense to trade this seasonality. So I would have a strong bias on next week Powell's FOMC outcome. Anybody else ?
Okay, so you have a set of criteria, which you don't want to mention, which generates signals that, if back-tested, produce the results you show in your first post. And you want to know if others are doing their own backtests, using their own set of criteria, which may be nothing like yours, and if they are going to be trading the next week.
Took a long time to get there, but, "No" is the answer.
If you want to trade seasonality, try commodities, where there is a natural and well-defined seasonal cycle.
I do not trade usually seasonalities but I am thinking of making an exception this year right now. That is why I am asking others here what they think of this trading idea ?
I trade seasonality and other statistical data, but I generally use it as a supporting parameter and don't trade on it alone.
For example, September seasonality was part of the reason why I was suspicious of this last rally higher expecting it to top out sooner than later. And after that CPI print it made me even more confident we'd see continuation lower.
Haven't done any homework for next week yet, so I have no opinion as of now.
Sorry dude, but there IS no trading idea. There's just your backtest results which are based on your black-box algorithm. No one can say if this is a good trade or not. I suspect, you are looking for someone to say "It's a great idea!" and then you will feel more confident entering the trade on Mon.
