Next week is worst week in the year for the stock market, so shorting SP500 and USD longs would be good. Anyone trading this seasonality ? I just numbercrunched it and it produced every year a profit for the last 12 years. I am just thinking about if I trade this. It looks good, every year a profit but of course it is optimized on 12 years data, if I go back more 10 years it does not work. But actually it seems to work. I get Reward-Risk-Ratio of 1.4 per year with ~100% win rate so far. I have attached some charts from my backtest I just made (always 1 lot traded as settings for all USD majors). I had some variation when to go in late September what kind of profittarget and how long to hold. That’s all. It entered a USDCHF long position on last Friday and it is already +0.3% in plus. It only took me 20 minutes to do this from scratch. Anyone had the same idea ?
Anyone trading next week seasonality ?
- Thread starter TrAndy2022
- Start date
I used a simple logic: If dayofmonth(date)=Is_a_valid_trading_day then enter next day on open. So if it was no trading day then no position was entered.
So, basically you enter every trading day. Hmmmm....
So how come you only have 2 trades for 2021?
And why aren't the no of trades more than 6 if there were > 6 trading days between 16-Sep till the end of the month?
I'm not challenging you, just trying to understand what criteria this data is based on.
No, only one trade for every major FX (except Kiwi is not considered) in every year, when there was a trading day when this seasonal signal triggered. In case it was a weekend then no trade was entered. That's it. It is really not that complicated. Maybe if you check for yourself and backtest this then it gets more clear.
Right, so there is some criteria that generates a "open trade!" signal and in 2021, it triggered for 2 major currency pairs, and in 2020 it triggered for 5??
Would love to, but have no idea what the backtest criteria actually is.
Your original post shows the results, but not the mechanism used to get there.
It is just an illustration, an example. Anyone can think of variants and can do his own number crunching. There is no secret here. Just do or try it on your own. But I am interested how others like the idea of a seasonal trade next week ? That is why I started this thread to make discussion about next week seasonality.
That's the problem with hindsights & expectations.
I remember a guy said it's useless to trade the market during holidays,
Still the biggest bear market rally happened July / August.
Trade what you see.
Not what you think.