Anyone trade like this? (pic)
- Thread starter IronFist
- Start date
The conclusion is this....you can't develop an edge that is purely mathematical unless you are Goldman and you have access to data that you and I don't. A mathematical model can be used as an assistant but not a pure system. It takes one outlier event to destroy all the progress. The only way to trade successfully is to understand the art of price reading better than your opponents. There is simply no substitute for experience and judgment.
I use all sorts of trading methods -- trend following, trend fading, scaling (a nice word for averaging
), stop and double, and such. The key is to know when to use what. Today is a perfect example. For me, today is a long only, stop, double down day. I will only trade in the direction of the market today, which is obviously up. If I stop out I'm reloading 2x as big long but I won't reload 2x, 4x, 8x, 16x, etc. There comes a point where I throw my hands up and say I don't have a clue. Today is not that kind of day. All you have to do is wait for the dips and buy. Monday may be different.
Each day has a certain character. Listen to the AM news, watch the premarket, the first 1/2 hour (first hour if there is 10am econ news), then develop the game plan based on all that evidence. The market doesn't typically change character mid-day unless there is more news. Leave the last 30 min's alone and then you're all set. It doesn't get much easier than this.
Now where is my dip?
I use all sorts of trading methods -- trend following, trend fading, scaling (a nice word for averaging
), stop and double, and such. The key is to know when to use what. Today is a perfect example. For me, today is a long only, stop, double down day. I will only trade in the direction of the market today, which is obviously up. If I stop out I'm reloading 2x as big long but I won't reload 2x, 4x, 8x, 16x, etc. There comes a point where I throw my hands up and say I don't have a clue. Today is not that kind of day. All you have to do is wait for the dips and buy. Monday may be different.Each day has a certain character. Listen to the AM news, watch the premarket, the first 1/2 hour (first hour if there is 10am econ news), then develop the game plan based on all that evidence. The market doesn't typically change character mid-day unless there is more news. Leave the last 30 min's alone and then you're all set. It doesn't get much easier than this.
Now where is my dip?
Quote from the1:
I use all sorts of trading methods -- trend following, trend fading, scaling (a nice word for averaging
Ever since you made this post the ES has been going down. Are you still long?
You are right. This is the Martingale strategy. Sometimes used in casinos for roulette. On the long run it could work theoretically. But you need unlimited money to double your wager. And after some games without winning you will have a huge amount in the game in order to earn some cent (the amount of the first wager).
Never ever!