anyone thinks over zero interest rate?

T

trader198

the 10-treaure or 30-treasure rate could be zero?

I know this situation can happen frequently between friends and relatives. I remeber I borrowed 20k chinese yen from my brother with zero interest and no repayment term when I first time came to u.s. after many years, about 10yrs, I returned the loan exactly the same amount when I visited china.

so this possiblity is there, if that does happen, what will be worthing of ZN/ZB futures?

this sounds crazy.under what kind of scienrio, this will happen, after another big big never seen crisis?

why I have this crazy idea, I found in the stock market: the market 70% time is going up, 30%time is going down(bad things happen, but quickly be fixed), so normally I rearely short, I always buy, if meets adversary, I just hold, and keep telling myself: bad things are always temporary, the world is not ending here. that works pretty well.
 
Quote from trader198:

the 10-treaure or 30-treasure rate could be zero?

I know this situation can happen frequently between friends and relatives. I remeber I borrowed 20k chinese yen from my brother with zero interest and no repayment term when I first time came to u.s. after many years, about 10yrs, I returned the loan exactly the same amount when I visited china.

so this possiblity is there, if that does happen, what will be worthing of ZN/ZB futures?

this sounds crazy.under what kind of scienrio, this will happen, after another big big never seen crisis?

why I have this crazy idea, I found in the stock market: the market 70% time is going up, 30%time is going down(bad things happen, but quickly be fixed), so normally I rearely short, I always buy, if meets adversary, I just hold, and keep telling myself: bad things are always temporary, the world is not ending here. that works pretty well.
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don't be fooled by the monetary illusion of wealth resulting from inflation.
 
the effective rate on Treasuries is already negative, isn't it? Maybe not if you use the official inflation rate, but certainly if you use the actual CPI rate, then it's negative. Does anyone disagree with this?
 
The Treasury Department currently has the real interest rates as:

5YR 7YR 10YR 20YR 30YR
04/25/13 -1.41 -0.98 -0.66 0.03 0.45

Of course this is before taxes and with their adjusted inflation estimates.

http://goo.gl/I9SLj
 
Quote from piezoe:

the effective rate on Treasuries is already negative, isn't it? Maybe not if you use the official inflation rate, but certainly if you use the actual CPI rate, then it's negative. Does anyone disagree with this?
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no, I'm sitting on pile of cash in the Vanguard Prime Money Market fund. It's the only thing that is stable in my life. I know everyday I am going to lose money in that fund, based on the interest rate and inflation.

I do my best to get it out there and invested everyday, but you know, these things take time

bonds are at an all time high, stocks are at an all time high

so here I am at the worse possible time with money to invest

and that is why people sit on negative rates

there's always that fear in the back of your mind, "Would I rather end up down 50% in the stock market, or down 2% in cash?"
 
Quote from oldtime:



there's always that fear in the back of your mind, "Would I rather end up down 50% in the stock market, or down 2% in cash?"
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On average, cash loses about 4% of its value every year. And thats if its under your mattress.
 
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