Rumor had it that a thread was unspooling regarding the recent poor performance of the TSCM OptionAlert model portfolio. I figured I should show up, be accountable and hopefully clarify some performance questions
Since the inception date of July 18. 2005 (call it 7 months) the model portfolio is up 4.5%- and yes that includes the recent losses. Yes, that is down from 17% just two weeks ago. So yes
the last two weeks have been terrible in terms of performance. The reason? I've simply been wrong. All positions have been of a limited risk. Anyone who has traded for any period of time will encounter some bad stretches; doesn't make it any less painful. I take the responsibility and implications of publishing investment ideas very seriously and am the first to acknowledge when I am not performing up to my own or anyones expectations.
But be clear, you mention four recent trades; that is four out of some 60 that have been suggested in the past seven months. And you don't quite have the facts straight on those four.
HAR was indeed a bust but you fail to note that I had rolled down the short $120 calls to the $115 strike. the loss was $3,900 not $6,000
ERTS was also rolled down; covered $60 calls and sold Feb. $55C. Position is still open and about $2,700 in the red not the $3,300.
AMZN was a bad trade. I'll say no more.
HRB is still open. Calls bought for 85 cents now at 65 with a five weeks remaining. Not ready to call that a big loser yet.
You also fail to acknowledge that during the last two weeks we have had profitable trades in AXP $52.50 calendar spread, long SPY $127 puts, which we took partial profit by selling some this morning's sell-off, and an open position in BZH (short Feb. $65 puts at $1.95) that is currently showing about a $700 profit. For full disclosure I just took a loss in CVH $60 calls. Which hopefully puts an end to a very trying two weeks.
This was way more then I intended to write and probably more than anyone cares to read. But felt I should put in my two cents while I still have a few of them to give
CoachPhil, thx for the nice words and hope to see you out on the playing field.
-steve