Anyone planning to trade/speculate the Ethereum Merge event?

Who would vote against Vitalik and friends?
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I believe the majority did? So Vitalik & the Ethereum dev-team put sharding on the back-burner and went full-force into the new consensus layer.

And since, we've heard nothing but complaints of... "Too expensive!" "Gas Fees are too high!" "Oh, too much traffic on Ethereum!!!" Critics naturally want to have their cake & eat it too :sneaky: No appeasing them.

But.... what is more likely in the next 6 months--
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Nope, no one can predict the next 6 months, not even Buffett. The western world is deep in shit, every step of the way they've miscalculated greatly, and there is still a war going on in Europe with another war about to break out shortly in the Asian theater as well.

Macro is taking one next leg down by the day closer and closer into a great depression 2.0

Betting on crypto doing something in 6 months is just a random gamble. Look at what happened with the Merge, so many negative swan variables popped up, that even when it was a success, we now have too many levered LONG bets that are now being liquidated off and even the blue-chips are tanking hard post-merge. Now that there is no more Fed-Put to save the economy, Macro rules the day and it's not looking bullish.

There is nothing positive I can say about the Nasdaq, except that trading hours have been extended to 8 pm for retail.
 
we now have too many levered LONG bets that are now being liquidated off and even the blue-chips are tanking hard post-merge. Now that there is no more Fed-Put to save the economy, Macro rules the day and it's not looking bullish.
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I've been shorting Eth leveraged 20x perp futures since the day of the Merge and been cashing in good

This morning I could not get an entry on shorting Eth because there was no meaningful bounce to enter the short position

I decided to get "creative" by going long btc when it bounced from 19,3xx to 19,4xx, gave all my profits from shorting Eth

I'm going back to shorting Eth...
 
NoahA said:
It certainly is a lottery ticket. I'm not sure where the bottom could be, that is the only issue.

Is there a reason why you decided to start loading up at $4-5?
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I respond to you here, lol

So, I had no idea where the bottom price is on ETHW.

Truth be told I wanted it to go to $1 or lower and I was going to go nuts on it, but I wanted to have a position at $5 (then $4) as it could take off at any time, imho

First of all, NFA, this is a lottery ticket, but let's examine the probabilities

ETHW is the same Ethereum as a few weeks ago. Eth is actually the one that changed... to POS

ETHW has the same circulating supply of ~122M as Eth and ETC

ETHW vs ETC, the problem with ETC is that it forked from Eth five years ago and the tech is behind so integration with bridges, latest defi smartcontract codes and platforms would require a lot of customization if at all even possible

ETC is at $30

So, given all of that, ETHW should be trading at above $30, why is it at $6?

Ethereum maxis are dumping their ETHW they got for free. call it an airdrop but it's free $$$

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So where to go now?

Well, ETHW has defi dex and yield farming already and can swap with fork candies like USDT on kyberswap or powswap dot io, 1 ETHW is equal to 27K USDT fork candies

So the proof of concept is there. Everything on Ethereum from last week is on ETHW blockchain. Uniswap, Sushiswap, Bored Ape NFT's and cryptopunk NFT's and now new stuff are being implemented kyberswap and powswap dot io

So if someone was buying Eth at $1700 a week ago, but they are dumping ETHW at $6 today, well, I think that's an opportunity

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The big risk of course is the blockchain dies or gets 51% attack if there are not enough miners to secure it because the price of the ETHW is too low to spend electricity on it

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I think ETHW will go to $50+ or even $100+ within 6 months

The key is if we get a bridge to other EVM compatible blockchains like BSC or Fantom or Avalanche

Then we can trade it on Pancakeswap, SpookySwap or TraderJoe

And if we get a stablecoin issued on the ETHW blockchain... even an algorithmic stablecoin like MIM would be huge

It's going to be a game changer

ETHW is only a few days old. Certainly big possibilities, but also big risks
 
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johnarb said:
I respond to you here, lol
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Amazing summary, thanks so much. The key for me, based on what you say, its really the miners. You can't have a blockchain without miners. Is there a way to track how much hashpower is going into ETHW? (I'm too lazy to look it up, and I'm sure you will know!)

Does ETHW have a similar difficulty scaling mechanism like bitcoin to adjust to the drastic drop in computing power? How is it that even now, a few days later, the token is still trading? Are there holdout miners processing these transactions at a huge loss, which must clearly be the case, or is it that these tokens are just being traded on exchanges like FTX, but there isn't really any way to interact with the blockchain and all these transactions are just done internally at all the exchanges?
 
Unfortunately, no triple-digit ETH this morning. The downward acceleration is now decelerating.

Another small load of dividends hit my TFSA today, I threw it into a bunch of REIT units instead. Rental prices and real-estate is still bat-shit crazy right now. Canada is doubling down on immigrants into the country and there is NO HOUSING anywhere to accommodate the numbers of people immigrating here. Literally, there is NO housing left. Apartment REITs is becoming one of the sure-fire things right now to invest in.
 
NoahA said:
Amazing summary, thanks so much. The key for me, based on what you say, its really the miners. You can't have a blockchain without miners. Is there a way to track how much hashpower is going into ETHW? (I'm too lazy to look it up, and I'm sure you will know!)

Does ETHW have a similar difficulty scaling mechanism like bitcoin to adjust to the drastic drop in computing power? How is it that even now, a few days later, the token is still trading? Are there holdout miners processing these transactions at a huge loss, which must clearly be the case, or is it that these tokens are just being traded on exchanges like FTX, but there isn't really any way to interact with the blockchain and all these transactions are just done internally at all the exchanges?
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You're welcome

So a few things. ETHW blockchain went live after the Merge, but no one was allowed to mine the first 2049 blocks which were reserved for the dev team that made the fork project

Before the Merge, some exchanges were trading ETHW futures or IOU's. This caused confusion with those high prices for ETHW from last week

ETHW is mainnet is completely live!! When you buy from a legit exchange, you can withdraw to your Metamask wallet but you have to configure the settings for the new network

I have all my ETHW cyrptos on my local Metamask wallet

The ETHW ecosystem is on this link

https://linktr.ee/ethw

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I'm on the ETHW Discord and there's a separate channel for mining, but even so, some mining stuff are mentioned on the general channel

A repeated theme is that the network hash is very high and difficulty is very high and an Nvidia RTX 3080 will produce $0.05/day so extrapolating $5 price (at the time) it would be 0.01 Eth per day

Mining and dumping at this low price is not a good strategy. You'd want to mine and accumulate for later when the price is much higher

This was posted on the mining channel


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I don't think Ethereum mining has difficulty adjustment. During the NFT craze, the Ethereum fees were over $500 for smartcontract transaction so it's a supply and demand, you can pay up or wait until the network is not busy, that's how they control the network load, and miners just have to compete for the rewards no matter what, depends on their resourses
 
johnarb said:
but no one was allowed to mine the first 2049 blocks which were reserved for the dev team that made the fork project
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This part makes me cringe. If someone has the power to completely stop/pause/control the how new blocks are created, we might as well just go back to central banks. I can see one day a government official ordering the shutdown of a blockchain, you know, for national security. It was already bad enough what was happening with the censoring of any addresses that interacted with Tornado Cash, but for a dev team to have the power to say who can mine blocks is dystopian.
 
The_Krakenite said:
Unfortunately, no triple-digit ETH this morning. The downward acceleration is now decelerating.

Another small load of dividends hit my TFSA today, I threw it into a bunch of REIT units instead. Rental prices and real-estate is still bat-shit crazy right now. Canada is doubling down on immigrants into the country and there is NO HOUSING anywhere to accommodate the numbers of people immigrating here. Literally, there is NO housing left. Apartment REITs is becoming one of the sure-fire things right now to invest in.
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Which REITs. I ask because I checked CAP Reit and it seems to be in a down trend.
 
NoahA said:
This part makes me cringe. If someone has the power to completely stop/pause/control the how new blocks are created, we might as well just go back to central banks. I can see one day a government official ordering the shutdown of a blockchain, you know, for national security. It was already bad enough what was happening with the censoring of any addresses that interacted with Tornado Cash, but for a dev team to have the power to say who can mine blocks is dystopian.
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You misunderstand the scope of that...

If you look at the websites on the links, there's always a donation address

The forking dev team has no funds. The 2049 blocks after the Merge is a minuscule amount of ETHW, that's only 24 hours of mining

It is a one time event. Open source on github, and it was part of the forking code process

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To put it into perspective, Ethereum started as ICO and 72 million Eth tokens were premined. That's how come you have a lot of Ethereum billionaires aside from Vitalik, plus the Ethereum Foundation has a lot of funds paying thousands of developers salary

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The ETHW forking dev team has no funds. No billionaire

The 72 M Eth tokens that belong to Vitalik cabal and friends.... they also own the 72 M ETHW tokens

  • Consider that last statement above

Now you know who's dumping millions of ETHW on exchanges and crashing the price to $6

Once they have sold all their ETHW tokens, the true price of the ETHW will be revealed

BTW, this is why the POS means they always control the network since they will always have majority of the tokens. Power to the people, er, power to the Vitalik EF cabal signed up with evil bankers JP Morgan

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And yes, you can interact with the ETHW smart contract blockchain. Uniswap, AAVE, comp, everything is in there but no front end so you have to interact with the smart contract directly

Kyberswap and powswap dot io are new smart contract platforms built on the ETHW blockchain and have front ends unlike the legacy smart contract platforms
 
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