Anyone Plan on Buying FXCM??

Yes. I think the hard part is seeing unreasonable prices in the pre-market. It's gonna be a volatile entry for sure.
 
FXCM will lose half of their accounts, those not already busted, in the next few days. I am talking about pre-SNB action to date. They're paying HALF of their pre-SNB EBITDA to Leucadia. This assumes that they will recover some accounts lost due to the SNB losses. It won't happen. They will not earn $30MM in the next twelve months.

So fast-forward 1Y and Leucadia owns FXCM for <$400MM. Shitty deal in light of recent events. Latest quarterlies show $473MM in rev. They will be lucky to do $275MM this year.
 
Volatility in the short term for sure, but honestly the whole fx "market" seems like a house of cards. 200:1 to 1000:1 leverage, poorly capitalized brokers. Seems more like digital bucket shops. That a publicly traded and transparent broker should get impacted like this really shocking considering how many less-than-reputable shops are out there that are much more opaque.

This is the kind of thing that can probably go on for a while, but when it all blows up there's going to be someone saying "Didn't you think it was odd that people had 1000:1 leverage? Don't you think those non capitalized positions distorted the market heavily?"
 
imho. Unlike the stock market, retail speculators are not significant enough to cause distortions in the FX markets. That's why leverage is tolerated by governments. If we started offering 401K forex accounts or individually managed Social Security Forex accounts...main stream stuff then I would be worried.

Govt/Corporate debt, mortgage debt (when it became a national phenomenon to lever up housing in the US and Europe) and for assets oil and gold. I am just saying "gold" because I don't want any vicious attacks from gold bugs.
 
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