potential interest rate changes are a fundamental that often, not always, currencies respond
to (or traders do); they do so by falling/rallying sometimes travelling sideways up to the time
of the announcement, so the $ should base this week then rally till the Jan 30 FOMC
announcement, whereas the ⬠will fall so a larger profit rally can occur; the major bet will be
by how much the Fed will cut
the BoE and ECB will announce any rate changes on Jan 10 -- none expected ???
while the general state of the US economy/inflation is a usual major rate-change influence,
of more concern at present is the subprime/credit crisis which isn't over and expected to
reveal its worst this quarter, many believe the Fed will have to lower a full point if not more
before matters are resolved
Feds meet: Jan 29/30 Mar 18 Apr 29/30 Jun 24/25 Aug 5 Sep 16 Oct 28/29 Dec 16
the lower the $ the lower the cost of Crude Oil to non $ currency countries; pointed out that
while the ⬠has risen it's led to higher efficiency/production for exporters -- a positive result
meaning 'Europe' is far from recession and there's anyway been significant changes in what
now contributes to the GDP of many countries
in addition it should be noted that in the last decade new 'middle class' consumers at least
equal to the population of the US have evolved in China, India and elsewhere that may take
up the slack of any US slowdown, which may remain more domestic than international, (and
watch out that Friday's Dec Job Report isn't revised upwards in Feb, or maybe not)
