Anyone have a reason why the market should go down?

[achilles28]

Quote from Locutus:

This is where you go wrong.

It depends on the sample size whether it is an indicator or not. If past results from event A are consistent over a high number of individual situations spread across time and under very different unique circumstances, you can bet pretty safely that the outcome of that event is going to be the same every time it happens.

Statistics, huh? Unfortunately, this is an economics issue, Corky. A bit above your paygrade. Apparently, you haven't the foggiest idea how the debt, deficit and economy fit together. IOW, you think you can drive by reading actuary tables on car accidents. Brilliant. And you bought SocGen, too? If the Greeks didn't ratify those austerity measures, SocGen would have taken a nice hit. Along with other EU financials. To describe it in terms you understand, each event you assume are identical by name, are completely different due to the economic conditions surrounding each circumstance. So to a geek with a calculator, it all appears the same, when in reality, it's not the same at all... The FED and Treasury are not fear-mongering the issue. Nor was Paulson and Bernacke in '08. But keep plugging along. LTCM fared great. So did Niederhoffer.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from achilles28:

Statistics, huh? Unfortunately, this is an economics issue, Corky. A bit above your paygrade. Apparently, you haven't the foggiest idea how the debt, deficit and economy fit together. IOW, you think you can drive by reading actuary tables on car accidents. Brilliant. And you bought SocGen, too? If the Greeks didn't ratify those austerity measures, SocGen would have taken a nice hit. Along with other EU financials. To describe it in terms you understand, each event you assume are identical by name, are completely different due to the economic conditions surrounding each circumstance. So to a geek with a calculator, it all appears the same, when in reality, it's not the same at all... The FED and Treasury are not fear-mongering the issue. Nor was Paulson and Bernacke in '08. But keep plugging along. LTCM fared great. So did Niederhoffer.

All right dude. Then why are you still not explaining why this time is different, or is that above your paygrade?

 

[S2007S]

Quote from achilles28:

If the debt ceiling isn't raised by August 2nd, the market - and economy - will crash far worse than '08....

That would certainly be the case, however everyone is making a bigger deal as usual, you have to understand we live in a world that rewards failure, everyone knew the bailout of greece was coming and everyone knows another QE is coming, and guess what the debt ceiling will certainly be raised sometime in the next 3 weeks, its a GUARANTEE that they raise it no questions asked, they will raise it another $2 Trillion+, book market this post and come back in a few weeks after they raise it again, anyone who questions or even thinks the debt ceiling is NOT going to be raised is a complete fool! Only way this economy knows how to grow is through cheap money policies and free handouts, this economy cant sustain anything on its own thats why it continues to be pumped up with worthless dollars......let them keep raising the debt ceiling again and again and again and again, this will only lead to SIGNIFICANT economic problems in due time!

 

[will848]

At this point, everything is a joke and it's all funny money. There's no way the politicians will NOT raise the debt ceiling. Just like Greece, they'll beat around the bush until there are no more ways to sugar coat it.

 

[cgtrader]

long into the debt ceiling deal announcement, short on the news....haven't we seen this before?

corruption has won the war for now, the market rules all, until that changes not much stopping the uptrend

there is a giant moral hazard safety net over the core of the markets, putting the sheep back to sleep!

 

[dandxg]

The Federal Reserve. That's why it won't go down. Don't fight Bubble Ben. The next time it will go down is when the EU has a refinancing jitter again and the greenback shoots up.

 

[hayman]

Quote from Locutus:

puhlease. Many posters here are so clueless it's barely funny.

Please answer the following questions:
a) How many times in the past have they failed to raise the debt ceiling
b) How many times when they failed to raise it, has the market or economy experienced *any* downside and how many times has it crashed?
c) Is it different this time? (i.e. are you a moron?)

All it will take is one calamitous event (yes, failure to raise the debt ceiling would easily classify as calamitous), and this brittle house of cards would come tumbling down, and yes, below the levels of '08. Only the inept will fail to recognize this. That said, will this happen?.....probably not. The Republicans desperately want to hang Obama on the debt ceiling rise, and I believe that they will hold out until the 23rd hour, when some compromise will be met. It's not only Obama's election on the line in 2012; it's also the "new" Republicans as well, and as of now, they are no better than the last batch that they replaced. The ditch is getting deeper day by day, and at some point there will be no way to repair this debt damage.....the bubble keeps getting inflated, and one of these days we are going to hear a giant popping sound, and the devastation will be major and rapid.

 

[cgtrader]

Quote from hayman:

All it will take is one calamitous event (yes, failure to raise the debt ceiling would easily classify as calamitous), and this brittle house of cards would come tumbling down, and yes, below the levels of '08. Only the inept will fail to recognize this. That said, will this happen?.....probably not. The Republicans desperately want to hang Obama on the debt ceiling rise, and I believe that they will hold out until the 23rd hour, when some compromise will be met. It's not only Obama's election on the line in 2012; it's also the "new" Republicans as well, and as of now, they are no better than the last batch that they replaced. The ditch is getting deeper day by day, and at some point there will be no way to repair this debt damage.....the bubble keeps getting inflated, and one of these days we are going to hear a giant popping sound, and the devastation will be major and rapid.

"giant popping sound" -- Could be true but increasingly looks like any event can be smoothed over by the corruption cabal and keep the sheep sleeping...that is until a real crisis is engineered to profit from.

 

[pattern39]

I suspect Armageddon will begin on Aug. 2... then...