Anyone follow Michael Harris and his service ?

syswizard said:
https://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/all-in-one/

He provides:
Two online books
Premium Trader Education
Premium Articles including weekly analysis reports
Weekly Market Signals
Premium Insights
Price: $345 for three months (save 38%) You may register below.

I am most interested in the Weekly Market Signals.
More...

Why the interest?
  • All 6 signal services drastically underperformed the S&P 500 last year
  • Some strategies beat the S&P with less risk when backtested back to 1993. Yeah, hindsight definitely helps. Everyone's backtest beats buy-and-hold (including plenty of mine).
  • And while I understand the necessity of disclaimers, his "Note that all strategies may fail in the future if market conditions change" seems to almost anticipate failure.
I see nothing compelling, but maybe that's just cynical ol' me.
 
Thanks MKTrader....do you have proof of the dramatic underperformance ?
I am especially interested in the weekly SPX forecast.
This is the kind of feedback I was looking for.
 
syswizard said:
https://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/all-in-one/

He provides:
Two online books
Premium Trader Education
Premium Articles including weekly analysis reports
Weekly Market Signals
Premium Insights
Price: $345 for three months (save 38%) You may register below.

I am most interested in the Weekly Market Signals.
More...

In https://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2015/03/curve-fitting-and-optimization-2/, Michael Harris writes about different types of curve fitting for trading systems and how the system-generating software he sells generates systems with the lowest probability of failure.

Type-III curve-fit: When the parameters of Type-III systems are adjusted, only the exit signals are affected. In this case, optimization and curve fitting result in collections of entry and exit signals that differ only in their exit part. Selection introduces less less bias than with Type-I or Type-II systems. These systems have the lowest probability of failure because the timing of entry signals is not affected by optimization. Example: Enter long if Close of today > Close of 2 days ago and Exit long at entry price + x points or at entry price – y points, where x and y are the parameter to optimize (profit target and stop-loss).
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An example of a software program that automatically discovers only Type-III systems is Price Action Lab.
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However, the reason his example is a "Type-III" system where parameters affect only exit signals is because of his definition of parameters (the "x" and "y" in his example). The sample system has characteristics that could be considered parameters including
  • the choice of entry direction.
  • the choice of using the close price (vs open, high, or low).
  • the choice of using the price of today.
  • the choice of using and price two days ago.
  • the choice of using the greater than relationship.
If the system generator gave these as choices to the user, they would be parameters. Michael Harris argues because Price Action Lab and not the trader chooses these, they are not parameters.

So in my opinion, this argument falsely paints his system generator as better than others. So I would be cautious in acting on his advice.
 
I have attended numerous courses and subscribed to many trading services.
Most of the trading coaches are BS hopeless traders and most of the
signals are garbage signals provided by unsuccessful traders.


I suggest you choose a trading coach where you can see his physical form,
and he does live trading in front of you.
 
syswizard said:
Thanks MKTrader....do you have proof of the dramatic underperformance ?
I am especially interested in the weekly SPX forecast.
This is the kind of feedback I was looking for.
More...

I just clicked on the "Weekly Signals" link and went here
https://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/weekly-signals/

You better be prepared to do more due diligence if you want to play this game. It's very hard to beat the markets and almost no system vendors do well in the long term.
 
Thanks for that MK. I see that his best strategy did not beat the buy and hold performance of the S&P 500 which was 30% in 2019.
 
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