Not at all
Anyone experienced the Oct 1987 crash?
- Thread starter turkeyneck
- Start date
Not at all
Quote from Landis82:
crude projects a "measured-move" down to $86.00, which incidentally is where the whole rally began back in the second week of February. chart below furnished by Mup of the EWT thread.
First leg down was 35.25
Subtract that from 121.30 counter-trend rally high and you get your objective:
$86.05
oil down $2 at 93.70...
im looking at oil services like nov,hero
if they cut rates,oil should pop.
In '87 things were fairly regular coming in to the 19th. tests that required 4 to 10 days to do had occurred 4 times leading into the 19TH so mostly every one in boutique type brokers had pulled long trades into cash prior to the 19th using the good opportunities to do planned exits.
Full blown application of capital was again possible by the 3rd or 4th of NOV.
At that time there was littlesecuritaization going on and quants were not influential to any extent.
5% is 5% and in today's market that is where the similarities draw thin.
As we all see one of the largest investments of families is now involved and we had an inflection in JUN06 that ended the the wealth building potential of this large investment of most families. Families have not been saving for quite a while and real income averages have been declining for several years. The inflection on real income came a couple of years into the current administration.
The shift from weekly number crunching ended with the exit of O'Neil from Treasury and the second string was brought in then. Prgmatism went to idealism and unreality.
So now we are in a situation where on several fronts there is a souring of the econometric variables and considerations. This is true not only for the US but for those throughout the globe and particularly those whose are carrying our debt.
The larger picture is there too. The dollar's strength is different than in "87 as well.
I map out the legs of the year ahead of the beginning of the year. Things are right on target and the steep leg down we just began is going off the chart as expected.
In '87 there was a period of time that was unpleasant for a few months.
This is different primarily because it is on a much slower fractal.
Today, there is no transparency especially with respect to the securitization and 10Q's and 10K's do not report out appropriately since there is not proper regulation. "Mark to Market" became a myth because the meaningful markets related to that wnet sour by bcoming illiquid and legislators and regulators allow such opaqueness to continue.
There are all kinds of feedback loops in econometric models. Driect; indirect; induced and sustitution; review them. The positive one's are where the problem lays currently; they are properly regulated nor had they been efforced. I count this as a hazard from JUN06 as the landmark infection point. We are at a point about 1/3 through. So we are still in the acceleration phase in an even harmonic step function. A 5% step occurred today.
These contemporary hits are fantastic. As you can see, staffs realy realy fucked up some operations and the scavengers have their minions doing DD all the time. The comment on reverse diligence today by the CEO who bought MER was priceless and trite.
Some what after the 1/2 way mark coming up, we will reach the end of acceleration to the beginning of deceleration point. Then we only have a little less than half way to go to begin what will be called in the future: "The Recovery".
Obviously, these are the best of times for making money as a parasite which I am. A large ATR is what I like best since now, unlike '87, we have real liquidity with which to play with a neutral bias. I would say most traders are screwed and don't know whether to shit or go blind. As they blowout steadily, first units then tens, etc., the games will be more evident and the we can steady down and grind out the bucks for years from this added opportunity.
Quote from Cheese:
What you have to do is buy the upmoves and sell the downmoves sequentially. To do so, you must apply an accurate methodology, using liquid markets (eg ES,YM,CL). If I take CL the range for today (Monday Sep 15 2008) was 254. Very nice gyrations were there for you to use, sequentially, one after the other, open to close. Remember, buy the upmoves, sell the downmoves, sequentially.
The sequence today (Sep 15) in the CL session's gyrations (up/down repeating 10.00 to 14.30) produced 13 macro 'legs' of minimum 45 points (ie cents). The mean average of those 13 'legs' was 120 points per 'leg'. Therefore between 10am and 2.30pm, thats some 1500 points which were on offer.
You can make yourself rich.
[/B]
what's CL?
Have you look at X? Short Sell US Steel get you 12+ pt. today, and still have a long way down, they were at 196 in July, now 96
Not that many similarities. Different set of macroeconomics, interest rates, etc.
I was sitting at my desk at Kidder Peabody just watching the screen and throwing in a couple of sell orders here and there. Execution of market orders was a dart throw that didn't make the dart board.
Ralph Acampora told us to stay calm.
Later in the week we found out that a Kidder broker was very short naked puts and the margin call eventually his home residence.
I was sitting at my desk at Kidder Peabody just watching the screen and throwing in a couple of sell orders here and there. Execution of market orders was a dart throw that didn't make the dart board.
Ralph Acampora told us to stay calm.
Later in the week we found out that a Kidder broker was very short naked puts and the margin call eventually his home residence.
The only thing I remember in '87 was the Ferrari bubble. Remember the days when a GTO could be sold for 14-18 million USD?
Insane times for Ferrari collectors...
Insane times for Ferrari collectors...
Quote from shortie:
where is bill rennick when one needs him?
LOL! he is busy playing with his balls...
PS: How are you doing buddy? I hope the market is treating you well.
