Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?

As you get down to smaller or larger time intervals, the elliot wave doesn't seem to hold. But, if you look at intermediate time intervals, the whole 1-2-3-4-5 and A-B-C thing does look fairly seductive. The only major problem I have with elliot wave is the concept of a long term A-B-C wave which prechter has been predicting forever. My gut feel is that there is innate inflation built into the market that keeps prices trending higher and makes the kind of C wave he has been predicting unrealistic.

At least, until Al-quaeda nukes us or some other horrendous disaster, which I will simply put my head in the sand about since it is too terrible to think of. Feels like we just went through a B wave, though, doesn't it?
 
I am fast holding the opinion that the Eliot wave work in the earlly day on the fast chart. Common to see the three down wave conduce to reversal or/and conngestion. Prophet follow where it lead.
 
I notice that Harry is fond of copying large articles off the internet and posting them here. Often they have as the main subject and text ideas that require either a specialized scientific or math background. This reminds me of students of mine who after reading several chapters of the class text, decide to portray themselves authorities on the subject (only to that select group that has yet to take the class of course).
The truth of the matter is that markets exhibit both random and non-random behavior. There is no controversy in this statement. Simply look at what happens to the market after reports come out. That is but one example of non-random behavior. Inquiry into the idea of cyclical behavior has a long history and a rigorous math that has been developed. However that mathematical structure has yet to provide a VIABLE method of describing cyclical behavior that can be used to predict price. Theses methods range from simple Fourier analysis to kernel regression to GARCH (look them up Harry, I am always glad to read more full page posts on subjects you don't understand). As regards, fibonacci, the reading I have done reveals that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that this offers an quantifiable edge to traders. This is not surprising. In fact, the bottom line is that most indicators we see in charting packages do not offer a statistical edge. This is not just my opinion, but the opinion of learned, experienced traders and researchers. One good example of a thoughtful view on this subject can be found by reading Ben Warwick's books on "event trading". Other viewpoints are published periodically in academic research and by the NY Bank staff. Sorry about the long post. I realize this is Harry's trademark. I could not resist. I look forward to all thoughtful comments (including yours Harry). :D Steve46

P.S. By the way, I do notice examples of cyclical behavior all the time. If you start with a 5 or 10 min chart and look at how price moves, then move to a 1 or 3 min chart of the same time period, often you will be able to identify "pops" of price movement. also in the popular literature there are references to cyclical entry set-up's to this day ("3 little indians" from Linda Raschke's books). I am not saying that it (cyclical activity) doesn't exist). Only that currently, there is no systematic, accurate way to use it. Thanks Steve46
 
While I am finding myself in agreeing in generality with the precedant posting, I am finding the overt generalization of the lack of values of the Fibonacci not to be support. Again with referent to the earlly morning, often one is finding the one-half retrenchment of the fullest moving of the morning to be yielding the prophet.
 
Quote from swtrader:

While I admit sometimes EW patterns play out, what these people never seem to admit is that often the market DOESN'T adhear to EW patterns.

Seems like this method puts a dangerous bias into the head of the trader, trying to see a pattern that isnt there, and ignoring what is going on. [/B]
More...

EW has some validity, but strict adherence to the rules ignores the reality of the marketplace.

However, Tudor Jones is a big fan of EW theory, and I use it sometimes when I believe applicable.
 
Sid:
"Prophet" is a word which in standard english refers to a disciple of Jesus, Buddha or Mohammed and who is endowed with the ability to foresee the future. I assume you mean profit (income minus expenses). :D I am not trying to criticize but you will need to monitor your posts so that we can understand what you are saying.
As I have said previously, I notice cyclical activity often, but I do not know of a systematic way to take advantage of it.
I do refer you to the texts written by those who try to trade "events". and I do notice "setups" that refer to cyclic activity including those of Linda Rascke. Also if one looks at the literature relating to candlesticks, there are many references to cyclic formations, i.e. "three crows". Cyclic activity is in the market no doubt, but at this point I know of no "indicator" or systematic way of using it that is viable and available to the public.
Steve46
 
I am making the observement that in the forenoon the one-half retrenchment often is observing to be working. The Fibinacci is not exhibiting itself to being a cyclicle procession, it is being a one time eventment. Okeh. And if we are being snotly here, your presumptively natively English cannot spell Raschke wrightly, having leaving out the H. Not all English is Americian. Manly more than you are speaking it quite well in the earth, I am thanking you to know. I am bystanding my asstertion that the retrenchment is working this day time. No did I say it work other day time.
 
Sid:
You need to read and think before you reply. I mentioned that I am not being critical. I am simply trying to understand your comment. I am a patient man, and I will overlook your lack of english if you will simply show that you have some manners. Good luck. Steve46
 
Can anyone post the quote where PTJ mentions he uses EW?

By the way, has anyone ever been to the forum on forexnews.com? They all use EW there, and they apply it to like, 1 min charts lol
 
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