Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?

Quote from vox_lucidus:

20%?? wel its not a loss, but george soros has made 120% on a single fund which at the time of this crowning achievment was several times the size of ALL of de shaws funds combined, so i guess it comes down to where you set your standards......the BEST of the quANTS can do okay consistently, the macro magi can do far more, the reason lies not in the impossibility of outperforming the quants/physicits, but rather in their substandard performance....


i like your screen name. the dark lord soros is a special cat--- i would not use him as an example.

surfer :)
 
thx for sn compliment,(vox lucidus= voice of light)
but i disagree, jewish ppl arent in to the whole 'lord'/heirarchical thing.....and i do not think that he is any more 'special' than i, i admire his intellectual validity, and the underlying social implications it carries.....BUT, at the end of the day, hes a hume, just like me, he easts, sleeps, pisses, and puts on his pants one leg at a time just like me.....and i would also not describe him as a 'dark' lord.....but rather more of a lightbringer......
Quote from marketsurfer:

i like your screen name. the dark lord soros is a special cat--- i would not use him as an example.

surfer :)
 
Quote from vox_lucidus:

i didnt assume anything, and actually my position is antithical to my cousins, untill recent years when he has changed his tune, the components of his models that are the most effective are the components that have the LEAST continuity with the ideas that have been imported directly from the physics universe.....
he admits that

now i didnt say that mkts were random i am a BIG opponent of random walk, but i am also a BIG opponent of efficient market hypothesis.....i contend that markets tend toward excesses, or overeaction to stimuli...in both directions, like much of the rest of humanity with a bias, i do not believe that 'the market is always right'.....in fact i believe that the market is always wrong.....that there is always an inherent bias in the market and that nothing is ever appropratly priced......but your comment about the fundamental analysis of the s&p reveals your lack of education in terms of econ/finance.......it dosent matter if xyz inc. is poised for dramatic growth if equity mkts in gerenal are not... rising exchange rates/interest rates etc.....thats what i meant by top down as opposed to bottom up....

Vox, again I restate. You have no idea as to how or or to what extent I apply Logic or Physics to the Market so assuming that what others, including your cousin, do to confirm Market direction is what I do, is foolhearty. My opinion regarding fundamental analysis is a straight forward one and directed to trading an Index as a whole. The industry itself feels the impact of fundamental analysis on trading an index is extremely limited because there are too many random factors to figure into the mix. I guess since my opinion is based on Market norms, we are all uneducated. Gosh, my doctorial thesis just devalued. I do not attest to know your educational background or your Market experience so I make no assumption in that area. Your opinions are based somewhere and as long as you are comfortable with them . . . great. I teach at an accredited University after spending over 25 years in the foxholes of corporate America and doing private research. Uneducated? Reading a specific Market's price movement has nothing to do with Economics or Finance. It's reading the Market's price movement the same way you would read frequency oscillation. These treads are a way for individuals to share ideas and to help each other. Just a way to stimulate thought. Great things come from the collective sharing of ideas. See you all at Happy Hour in Chicago next month. Let's share!
 
Quote from vox_lucidus:

..in both directions, like much of the rest of humanity with a bias, i do not believe that 'the market is always right'.....in fact i believe that the market is always wrong.....

Just a thought:
Perhaps the market is always right in order for a trader to maximise profits and minimise losses, even though it is always wrong in any certain sense such as the market is constantly seeking its right price level dynamically. :confused:
 
Quote from OddTrader:

Just a thought:
Perhaps the market is always right in order for a trader to maximise profits and minimise losses, even though it is always wrong in any certain sense such as the market is constantly seeking its right price level dynamically. :confused:
what i meant is that the market is always wrong in terms of being efficient.........
 
I went on a CQG technical analysis day last year, which was quite excellent, and really got me going on candles (outstanding).

There was a 40 minute presentation on EW by a very well respected ( by others I deduce) EW theorist who works for JP Morgan.

He spent most of the time explaining what the market had done and why, but when asked for a prediciton useful enough to develope a trade, it all went very pear shaped. He couldn't. (Well done JP Morgan, a useful employee). Anyway, I remeber two things in particular. Firtsly, he did have a call that dollar swiss was going to rally, as it was the 5th of the 5th - this marked the begining of the serious decline. secondly, there were some other EW chaps there, and on one of his charts they started to discuss which wave of which wave the market was in. By the end of thier facinating chat, he actually changed his mind, three times, and ended up being more confused than me. ( Only because I was more interested in one of the hostesses - oooh yes please)


So to cut a long story short, it was a load of complete bollocks as far as I am concerned. On the flip side, if there is anyone making money ( and I mean making money, not having wanky calls on the market) good bloody luck to you, and long may it continue.

Which brings me to my concluding comment. Who cares. we all have to discover for ourselves what works for each of us. Would our time not be better spent persuing topic with a positive outcome? Look for what works. Forget about how anyone else is doing. And trade. Simple really.
 
Quote from MackieMesser:

yes. But then most TA is hooey. But it is a big business, so don't expect the truth to ever come out.

Expecting the truth would be disclosed by any vendors/ forums/ seminars, perhaps we newbies don't like the above claim at all, but it might be quite true. :confused: :mad:
 
Quote from Everest:

Which brings me to my concluding comment. Who cares. we all have to discover for ourselves what works for each of us. Would our time not be better spent persuing topic with a positive outcome? Look for what works. Forget about how anyone else is doing. And trade. Simple really.

Why people keep telling us the truth we don't like? :(
 
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