Anyone else sensing that we are going to have a (further) melt up?

S

Saltynuts

I get the feeling that, even though the market has been up huge lately, it stalled in recent weeks, given the political uncertainty. It being up big today is just the start. I get the feeling its going to melt up and leave a LOT of people out in the cold. Anyone else getting this feeling? I am talking U.S. stock market here.

Thanks!
 
Absolutely. Nothing to do with "political uncertainty", everything to do with large fixed income and cash positions seeming increasingly idiotic in a world of $2 trillion stimulus packages, unlimited easy money forever, and everything from Chinese tech stocks to soybeans to bitcoin rocketing higher at double or triple digit annual rates.
 
Your return on a cash deposit at a bank is close to zero, so cash is being put to work in assets that yield a better ROI. At this point in the investment cycle, cash is trash.
 
Saltynuts said:
I get the feeling its going to melt up and leave a LOT of people out in the cold.
More...

ooh you are sooooooooooooooo smart

i do not trade on feelings...though i have them all the time

i bought my first share in 1987 and i can say this very certainly: ONLY AN ABSOLUTE IDIOT SELLS ALL TIME HIGHS.

that does not mean it cannot fall 1-30 percent tomorrow....it only means that all falls will be bought.......

for a test of the highs
 
Good idea it to look at volatility (VIX9D, VIX, VIX3M) to get a sense as to where there might be events at play that could push prices lower. An important thing to note is that investor sentiment is typically what causes short-term reversals -- so I would pay attention to indicators of sentiment and key events that could shift it in one direction or another.
 
Saltynuts said:
I get the feeling that, even though the market has been up huge lately, it stalled in recent weeks, given the political uncertainty. It being up big today is just the start. I get the feeling its going to melt up and leave a LOT of people out in the cold. Anyone else getting this feeling? I am talking U.S. stock market here.

Thanks!
More...
Historically, January is a high return month for the S&P500. Take a look at https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf
 
Saltynuts said:
Anyone else getting this feeling?
More...
I am with you. I am more concerned with getting caught short than with being caught long into a pull back/crash. I suspect we may not even get any pullbacks before the lift off.
 
This market seems to leave most dumbfounded.

In a short commentary, Nicolai Tangen, new leader of the Norwegian oil fund said something to the effect of how extraordinary the last 10 years have been and that this can't be sustained, because this is not how markets work. For what it's worth he's got skin in the game and have been very successful with his private hedge funds prior to taking this job.

Makes you wonder...

Personally, I don't hold a strong opinion as I don't have a valid way of making such predictions. We can easily go higher from here. Considerably higher. Equally, many tops have been formed on strong days up.
 
I think that it will go up higher, but all of those gains will be erased VERY QUICKLY. If you are buying now, you will be underwater soon, despite it going higher on the short term,

Market is going for a blow-off top, maximum euphoria where every last disbeliever FOMOs in and then kaboom.

It has to go up so that people are 100% confident and euphoric - thinking that the times will last.
Spoiler alert: They won't.
 
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