Yes, position sizes are all volatility based so "equal out" across asset classes. The actual stoploss would often be on the other side of a multi-year high / low that if hit would signal trend continuation invalidating the initial entry. If the trend does start to reverse (stoploss doesn't get hit), I would build up / scale into a position over a period of weeks or even months depending how long the accumulation / distribution phase lasts.
Anyone else self-sabotage?
- Thread starter Aisone
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Yes, position sizes are all volatility based so "equal out" across asset classes. The actual stoploss would often be on the other side of a multi-year high / low that if hit would signal trend continuation invalidating the initial entry. If the trend does start to reverse (stoploss doesn't get hit), I would build up / scale into a position over a period of weeks or even months depending how long the accumulation / distribution phase lasts.
What I've been looking at recently is using weekly Heikin Ashi bars, they appear to be as good as anything and simple.
Here using bitcoin as an example
I understand, it was tough for me as well. My development went in phases, going to longer and longer holding periods as my analysis skills improved. The goal now is to buy undervalued assets for pennies on the dollar when no one wants them but they are on the verge of a multi-year trend reversal and then hang on until they become overvalued (in the bubble phase).
Nowadays I make maybe 10 transactions per year unless it's a major capital rotation. The less I trade, the more profitable the portfolio. As long as the macro undercurrents don't change, there is no need for me to do anything but hold on. And the macro changes very slowly, so I only really "work" about 1 hour/day. It's mostly just watching paint dry.
That's interesting and innovative, the thought of using HA candle ranges never even crossed my mind!
Weekly, a touch of price below prior weekly low is my signal.That's interesting and innovative, the thought of using HA candle ranges never even crossed my mind!
Just touch, then gtfo.
Easily measured using lowest low in coding.
Once price falls, the LLV remains, so you don't lose the signal.
Lowest low value.
Nice, I go in when they are cold and bottoming out.
Got into gold, silver, copper, uranium and lithium in 2021, some copper names in 2023, platinum & palladium back in Feb/Mar (2024), T-bonds back in May (2024)... well you get the idea.
Choice.Nice, I go in when they are cold and bottoming out.
Got into gold, silver, copper, uranium and lithium in 2021, some copper names in 2023, platinum & palladium back in Feb/Mar (2024), T-bonds back in May (2024)... well you get the idea.
Remember, markets can remain irrational.
A bottoming pattern can stay there.
All hot stocks - which everyone wants, needs to see a pop.
So a bottom imo needs a pop before committing.
Yes, well said!
For me, I need to see a rising tide on the horizon (= major macro shift), e.g. G7 / G20 central banks being forced into negative real rates to deleverage global debt levels at the onset of a global recession resulting in fiat degradation = stagflation = commodities supercycle.
With trading you want biggest and quickest bang for bucks.
Thats the bottom line, profit, as much as possible, as fast as possible.
So you commit to what is running, not what you think will run, as back to before, mkts remain irrational.
Irrational means difficult to guess ahead of time.
Thats the bottom line, profit, as much as possible, as fast as possible.
So you commit to what is running, not what you think will run, as back to before, mkts remain irrational.
Irrational means difficult to guess ahead of time.