anyone daytrade the ZF (5 YR Note)? It seems pretty weak

I took profit on half of my TuT position at 9:30 am Central time. Remainder of the bid still working below.
 
i didn't take enough out of my short zf flys before getting trapped in ty flys and giving back my day and a bit more- o well not gonna see these extremes everyday *hopefully* (or if we do i'll have to start betting on them more)
 
I'm wearing the GE Z1-Z2 for a couple tics in here...

model still has me short. I shouldn't piss and moan about it given the TuT's payoff. Come to think of it, when was the last time I had a trade that was green start to finish ?
 
took my loss on 1/3 of my ty fly's 30 min's ago, hoping after taking a bite out of me they'll move it a bit back for me to take the loss on the other 2/3 but hasn't happened so far, exiting another 1/3 in the next 10 min and then will hold the rest til 330ish central

edit: out 2/3 now, ty fly should bounce a couple prices from here over next hour- they always do once i dump my share

double edit: with the amount of fits the market bought between yesterday and todays action i'm inclined to think we just hit the top of this rally- but with my permabear mentality i also think the stock market could drop 40% in the next two months which would mean we are in for an interesting rally- perhaps a strengthening rally?
 
I had a buy in the NoB late yesterday that I was looking for some confirmation follow-through on this morning - that never materialized. Good thing I covered half the TuT at 9:30 am because the GE Z1-Z2 and the TuT both subsequently moved against me (higher). Got short the TuT the 14th, so the sting from the GE is a bit subdued.

Personally, I think the FYT has been a choppy mess worth ignoring past couple months. Eurex has been good. Real good.
 
i love choppy messes :p

but seriously, they don't buy that many fits and have a weak nob to boot in a rally unless some massive ty positions are being unloaded-- somebody really believes the stock market will bounce back and pressure rates up again.
 
I took a .0250 loss in the 5yr today...if you were to suggest the most basic spread (to daytrade) with the least amount of contracts...what would it be? using 2,5,10, 30 yrs?
 
well least amount of contracts moves you out further on the curve- the simplest balanced one would be a zb fly -2 ub, +6 zb, -5 zn

although someone posted earlier questioning the validity of the cme provided spread ratios- so maybe there is an easier one.

personally i wouldn't trade flys unless you can put atleast 3 units on, and with that one you'd have 18 zb and i've seen that fly move from top to bottom of an intraday move ~10k if you had all 3 units on, so keep that in mind- not always easy to take small losses on the zb fly because both zb and ub move in full tics, and ub is like a ghost when you need liquidity.
 
Quote from dumb_mother:

well least amount of contracts moves you out further on the curve- the simplest balanced one would be a zb fly -2 ub, +6 zb, -5 zn

although someone posted earlier questioning the validity of the cme provided spread ratios- so maybe there is an easier one.

personally i wouldn't trade flys unless you can put atleast 3 units on, and with that one you'd have 18 zb and i've seen that fly move from top to bottom of an intraday move ~10k if you had all 3 units on, so keep that in mind- not always easy to take small losses on the zb fly because both zb and ub move in full tics, and ub is like a ghost when you need liquidity.
More...
thanks very much for your insight...what about an intra month spread of the same contract? Example: buy March ZN and sell June ZN??...or are intra months of same contract best on Eurodollar?
 
Quote from increasenow:

thanks very much for your insight...what about an intra month spread of the same contract? Example: buy March ZN and sell June ZN??...or are intra months of same contract best on Eurodollar?
More...

not my playground- can't give you any advice there

out of my last at 3:15- all basically at the same price, surprising
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top