Anyone Betting on Facebook?

On Friday I bought a bunch of FB July 29 strike puts. As of the close I was up .30 on them, but I believe that FB could fall to 20 by the end of June. There will probably be some days that it trades positive as there will be short covering opportunities, but I think that the serious buyers will be waiting for a much, much lower price to even dabble in this POS. Maybe once the shares reach a valuation around levels closer to Google and Apple some serious buyers will step in.

With the crazy valuations on this stock and a weak market overall I just do not understand why anyone would want to buy this higher than the teens. Especially in an overall weak market. There will be announcements of lawsuits all summer and their earnings appear to be declining. Lots of customers of the firm that I work for opened accounts just to buy Facebook and they got burned hard. Now everyone is letting reality set in and actually reading about the earnings and valuation of the company... compared to say Google, and they are getting worried and the news regarding Morgan Stanley and other underwriters is getting them disgusted.
 
Quote from Trader7793:

On Friday I bought a bunch of FB July 29 strike puts. As of the close I was up .30 on them, but I believe that FB could fall to 20 by the end of June. There will probably be some days that it trades positive as there will be short covering opportunities, but I think that the serious buyers will be waiting for a much, much lower price to even dabble in this POS. Maybe once the shares reach a valuation around levels closer to Google and Apple some serious buyers will step in.

With the crazy valuations on this stock and a weak market overall I just do not understand why anyone would want to buy this higher than the teens. Especially in an overall weak market. There will be announcements of lawsuits all summer and their earnings appear to be declining. Lots of customers of the firm that I work for opened accounts just to buy Facebook and they got burned hard. Now everyone is letting reality set in and actually reading about the earnings and valuation of the company... compared to say Google, and they are getting worried and the news regarding Morgan Stanley and other underwriters is getting them disgusted.
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Good luck with that trade.
The Blog about 286,000,000 shares available for sale in 3 months, and your strong Bearish argument have me convinced - for the short term at least. Will look into August 30/31 Bear Call Spreads tomorrow.
But will still stay Long with the January 25/24 Bull Put Spread, in case FB starts sorting out their monetizing problems - after Uptalk SmuckFace gets back from his honeymoon!
:)
 
taking the short side with puts or short the stock is a good idea

this could see be a $ 15.00 - $ 20.00 overvalued & too risky to buy
 
FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').

I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--

Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.

My guesses were/are

1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.

By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.

peace

hedvig
 
Quote from stephan31:

FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').

I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--

Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.

My guesses were/are

1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.

By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.

peace

hedvig
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I like that kind of talk!
:D
 
Why thank you!

Eventually; everyone comes over to the dark side!

Peace & Blessings!

Archbishop Hedvig Von Dikkeman V

p.s.

Seriously--FB (at this point--natal birthdate and 1st 10 days price action) appears (imho) to be a stock that will be

a) high volume
b) large big-swingin' dick price movement each year
------------
FB will survive--initial growing pains and the 'scam' of retail suckers aside...
 
Quote from stephan31:

FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').

I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--

Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.

My guesses were/are

1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.

By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.

peace

hedvig
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I'll pay 5:1 against a touch of $15.33 by 11/11/2012. I think you're FOS.
 
Atticus,

Such a polite gentleman.

I am usually not.

Well, when the stock indices bottom in another 3-4 months I guess we will know if the 'fagbook' rolls with the tide.

Yes--the $15 and change is an extended 2nd target 'projection'--'tis all.

I am excited about trading weekly options when they come out. I anticipate FB being a great stock to swingtrade.

Alot of good r:r setups most likely once we get 2 quarterly earnings reports out of the way.

peace

hedvig
 
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