Anyone Betting on Facebook?

[Swan Noir]

No ... they do not need the cool factor but FB does as they are now structured. They are built around cool to a degree. Google is, as you know, a very different business model and not a real comparison.

While the ads themselves could not track future behavior we did offer incentives for the client to call us toll free and report results etc. That though would be a species argument on my part and not one I seriously put forth. The reality is that cookies are a new weapon in the arsenal ... and, I assume, very valuable.

Quote from syntrader:

I disagree with your statement, "None of the digital metrics are new or more precise".

With cookies they know what ads you've seen and can track your behavior - do you go to the advertisers web site - for the next 30 days more or less. Print ads can't track future behavior.

Google is an interesting example - their ads and their audience are not dependent on a cool factor - search ads and text ads on run-of-the mill web sites targeting the average Joe brings in a lot of money. They don't need a cool factor to haul in the dough.

 

[syntrader]

Quote from Swan Noir:

No ... they do not need the cool factor but FB does as they are now structured. They are built around cool to a degree. Google is, as you know, a very different business model and not a real comparison.

While the ads themselves could not track future behavior we did offer incentives for the client to call us toll free and report results etc. That though would be a species argument on my part and not one I seriously put forth. The reality is that cookies are a new weapon in the arsenal ... and, I assume, very valuable.

Yes, its all about the cookies. And that represents a big risk to my position in FB. If the govt. outlawed cookies, FB would be royally screwed.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

I think you guys are overestimating the importance of the cool factor. It was crucial in the beginning, yes, but now Fb is totally mainstream. In fact, I would argue that coolness is irrelevant to it because most of their users are people who don't really have a clue about what is cool or not. They are moms and dads and grandparents, not just urban hipsters or kids. And these mainstream users are not likely to migrate en mass to the next cool platform. They have their online lives already posted on FB, and it is a pain in the neck to learn something new.

To me, the analgoy is AMZN, a company that has never really made any money but trades at a stratospheric P/E because everyone sees the potential for it to mint money. In some ways, it is easier to imagine FB doing that than AMZN, because retail will always be a tough business. FB is unique, has huge barriers to entry through the network effect and has a massive user base already.

 

[syntrader]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I think you guys are overestimating the importance of the cool factor. It was crucial in the beginning, yes, but now Fb is totally mainstream. In fact, I would argue that coolness is irrelevant to it because most of their users are people who don't really have a clue about what is cool or not. They are moms and dads and grandparents, not just urban hipsters or kids. And these mainstream users are not likely to migrate en mass to the next cool platform. They have their online lives already posted on FB, and it is a pain in the neck to learn something new.

To me, the analgoy is AMZN, a company that has never really made any money but trades at a stratospheric P/E because everyone sees the potential for it to mint money. In some ways, it is easier to imagine FB doing that than AMZN, because retail will always be a tough business. FB is unique, has huge barriers to entry through the network effect and has a massive user base already.

Yes, the cool factor is a bit of a red herring, and they have a big moat (barrier to entry) around them as I said earlier.

Besides the other things I like about FB (posted previously), perhaps one of the things that will really give the stock a boost is the high short interest. A stock this hated is one that go much higher if they get any type of bullish catalyst. Today's announcement about moving into eCommerce is a good example.

 

[eurotrasher]

Quote from syntrader:

Yes, the cool factor is a bit of a red herring, and they have a big moat (barrier to entry) around them as I said earlier.....

Buffett likes moats and he ain't long.

Munger takes it one step further. "I don't invest in what I don't understand. And I don't want to understand it...."

Charlie dislikes the whole idea of it......

"I don't want people putting all this personal stuff into a permanent record when they are 15 years of age. I think it's counterproductive. "

And in case you're wondering -- neither Buffett nor Munger is on Facebook.

FB = signing up = lame

FB = posting your day's updates = lamer

FB = showing off your cat videos = lamest

There is nothing of value in FB, just a college kid who got enormously lucky, that's it.

FaceBook is an hallucination to make money..........

 

[syntrader]

Quote from eurotrasher:

Buffett likes moats and he ain't long.

Leave it to Munger to take it one step further. "I don't invest in what I don't understand. And I don't want to understand Facebook," Munger said.

In fact, it's not only that he doesn't understand it -- it's that he dislikes the whole idea of it.

"I don't want people putting all this personal stuff into a permanent record when they are 15 years of age. I think it's counterproductive. "

And in case you're wondering -- neither Buffett nor Munger is on Facebook.

FB = posting your day's updates = lame

FB = showing off your cat videos = lamer

its not about the that type of value. its about $.

please short more.

There is nothing of value in FB, just a college kid who got enormously lucky, that's it. FaceBook is an hallucination to make money..........

 

[atticus]

FB +5% on the day.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

Quote from eurotrasher:

Buffett likes moats and he ain't long.

Munger takes it one step further. "I don't invest in what I don't understand. And I don't want to understand it...."

Charlie dislikes the whole idea of it......

"I don't want people putting all this personal stuff into a permanent record when they are 15 years of age. I think it's counterproductive. "

And in case you're wondering -- neither Buffett nor Munger is on Facebook.

FB = signing up = lame

FB = posting your day's updates = lamer

FB = showing off your cat videos = lamest

There is nothing of value in FB, just a college kid who got enormously lucky, that's it.

FaceBook is an hallucination to make money..........

Seriously, who gives a crap? I doubt Munger knows how to use a PC. That whole email thing is just a passing fad. Stick to quill pens.

FB has 900 million users who took the trouble to sign up for an account.

 

[eurotrasher]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Seriously, who gives a crap ?

you do.

 

[eurotrasher]

Quote from atticus:

FB +5% on the day.

the IPO retail crowd is ecstatic, half is better than none.