Anyone Betting on Facebook?

Quote from atticus:

The stock will not touch $20.00 in 2012.
More...


nice call.


:D




this just in...............

http://online.barrons.com/article/barrons_cover.html#articleTabs_article=1


Facebook's 40% plunge from its initial-public-offering price of $38 in May has millions of investors asking a single question: Is the stock a buy? The short answer is "No." After a recent rally, to $23 from a low of $17.55, the stock trades at high multiples of both sales and earnings, even as uncertainty about the outlook for its business grows.

The rapid shift in Facebook's user base to mobile platforms—more than half of users now access the site on smartphones and tablets—appears to have caught the company by surprise. Facebook (ticker: FB) founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg must find a way to monetize its mobile traffic because usage on traditional PCs, where the company makes virtually all of its money, is declining in its large and established markets.

That trend isn't likely to change.

AT ITS CURRENT QUOTE, Facebook trades at 47 times projected 2012 profit of 48 cents a share and 36 times estimated 2013 earnings of 63 cents. Compare that with Google and Apple, two proven technology growth stories, which both trade for about 16 times estimated 2012 earnings. Facebook is valued at $61 billion, or $53 billion excluding its estimated $8 billion in cash. That's more than 10 times estimated 2012 revenue of $5 billion.

Google trades for half that valuation.

What are the shares worth?

Perhaps only $15...........................:D

That would be roughly 24 times projected 2013 profit and six times estimated 2013 revenue of $6 billion, still no bargain price. Wall Street's consensus estimate for 2013 shows earnings rising 31%, to 63 cents a share.

That pro forma number is generous because it ignores Facebook's very significant stock-based compensation. The company has been issuing gobs of restricted stock to engineers and other key employees in the hot Silicon Valley job market to prevent them from being lured away to the next hot tech start-up—the next Facebook.

Facebook issued $1.4 billion of restricted stock in 2011, or nearly $500,000 per employee. So far this year, the company has doled out $1 billion of restricted stock.

Facebook's reported stock-based compensation expense—based on the amortization of several years of stock grants—could total 20 cents a share next year. Subtract that from the 2013 consensus earnings number, and the shares trade at 50 times earnings.

At $15 they would still be valued at a rich 35 times earnings.............:D

IN COMING MONTHS, FACEBOOK'S share price could be depressed by significant sales by holders subject to expiring lock-up restrictions established at the time of the IPO.

Already, co-founder Dustin Moskovitz has sold 7.5 million shares, or 5% of his stake, and early investor and director Peter Thiel has sold 20.1 million shares, or 80% of his holding (see table, Major Insider Sales Since IPO).

Some 234 million shares (including options and restricted stock) become available for sale on Oct. 29, followed by another 777 million on Nov. 14.

That's a lot relative to the current float of as much as 692 million shares, representing the 421 million sold at the IPO and another 271 million shares on which lock-up restrictions already have expired.

The total share count is 2.65 billion.


next up.........

a puke thru the magic number of $15.33 coming to a quote screen near you.

:D
 
Quote from eurotrasher:

nice call.


:D




this just in...............

http://online.barrons.com/article/barrons_cover.html#articleTabs_article=1


Facebook's 40% plunge from its initial-public-offering price of $38 in May has millions of investors asking a single question: Is the stock a buy? The short answer is "No." After a recent rally, to $23 from a low of $17.55, the stock trades at high multiples of both sales and earnings, even as uncertainty about the outlook for its business grows.

The rapid shift in Facebook's user base to mobile platforms—more than half of users now access the site on smartphones and tablets—appears to have caught the company by surprise. Facebook (ticker: FB) founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg must find a way to monetize its mobile traffic because usage on traditional PCs, where the company makes virtually all of its money, is declining in its large and established markets.

That trend isn't likely to change.

AT ITS CURRENT QUOTE, Facebook trades at 47 times projected 2012 profit of 48 cents a share and 36 times estimated 2013 earnings of 63 cents. Compare that with Google and Apple, two proven technology growth stories, which both trade for about 16 times estimated 2012 earnings. Facebook is valued at $61 billion, or $53 billion excluding its estimated $8 billion in cash. That's more than 10 times estimated 2012 revenue of $5 billion.

Google trades for half that valuation.

What are the shares worth?

Perhaps only $15.

That would be roughly 24 times projected 2013 profit and six times estimated 2013 revenue of $6 billion, still no bargain price. Wall Street's consensus estimate for 2013 shows earnings rising 31%, to 63 cents a share.

That pro forma number is generous because it ignores Facebook's very significant stock-based compensation. The company has been issuing gobs of restricted stock to engineers and other key employees in the hot Silicon Valley job market to prevent them from being lured away to the next hot tech start-up—the next Facebook.

Facebook issued $1.4 billion of restricted stock in 2011, or nearly $500,000 per employee. So far this year, the company has doled out $1 billion of restricted stock.

Facebook's reported stock-based compensation expense—based on the amortization of several years of stock grants—could total 20 cents a share next year. Subtract that from the 2013 consensus earnings number, and the shares trade at 50 times earnings.

At $15 they would still be valued at a rich 35 times earnings.

IN COMING MONTHS, FACEBOOK'S share price could be depressed by significant sales by holders subject to expiring lock-up restrictions established at the time of the IPO.

Already, co-founder Dustin Moskovitz has sold 7.5 million shares, or 5% of his stake, and early investor and director Peter Thiel has sold 20.1 million shares, or 80% of his holding (see table, Major Insider Sales Since IPO).

Some 234 million shares (including options and restricted stock) become available for sale on Oct. 29, followed by another 777 million on Nov. 14.

That's a lot relative to the current float of as much as 692 million shares, representing the 421 million sold at the IPO and another 271 million shares on which lock-up restrictions already have expired.

The total share count is 2.65 billion.


next up.........

a puke thru the magic number of $15.33 coming to a quote screen near you.

:D
More...

Shopster, you're welcome to join the wager, hypothetically, as you're a busto like hedvig.
 
Quote from riskarb:

Man... you keep digging yourself a deeper hole. I'm done with you, you're not worth my time.

A word of advice, grow up, find some badly needed humility and get a new handle.

You may want to ask yourself how pathetic it appears to run multiple aliases.

That appears pathological at first glance, and I imagine my professional background is a better judge.


arb.
More...


the Atticus nick works.

you missed the " growing up and humility part. "

a bitter pill to swallow, but you continue to shove it down the throats of others on this forum.

being a jerk is a hard habit to break.

sidebar: you donate those old trans-lux LED boards to the Smithsonian yet.

get a tax receipt.

it will help offset that Goog trade that went south.


:D
 
this is going to be like a vonage VG

reasons:

1) alot of people dont use FB
2) most of the accounts on FB are not real or are for scamming
identity theft purposes

anybody who puts their real name on FB is a fool. Thats like me telling the public my Social Security number.

the stock goes lower. might do a reverse split in the future.

blackguard
 
Facebook is nowhere near as popular as it was. Twitter is the main thing now since people can post pictures up on it as well. A ton of people still use facebook and will continue to, but I don't see them being able to increase their number of accounts unless something big changes.
 
FCX and others ... the majority of accounts on FB are bogus

I agree Twitter is better, I have many friends tel me that.
we will see what happens

blackguard
 
I was talking to a doctor and he asked me about FB. I had to explain that I don't trade stocks just futures, but I said if he wants to invest in it now and hold it for many years, then yes I think its a good investment.
 
bought some puts on FB this week when it hit my 50days EMA. works magically.

the share-lock up period will pass, FB may be just signles in next several months.
 
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