Any War-WallStreet Historian here?

[Riskmanager]

Here´s a great link to a recent analysis from John Murphy, he compares the current situation with the last pre-war market from the first gulf war:

http://www.trading-ideas.com/MarketCommentary/mc122202-1.asp

 

[Free Thinker]

knowing how the market will react to war is impossible to know. it depends on the news. imagine if iraq was able to inflict some kind of heavy damage on us at some time during the war. so the pat answer that the market rallys when the war starts is silly.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from WDGann:

Me!

War time markets are good!

I'm probably the only person in ET who hand-wrote 113 years of Dow Index in a Daily Bar Chart.

62 years of Soybean, Daily Bar Chart.

... war markets are nice because the market doesn't move logically. Meaning... it move under human or social emotions. Usually, when the market is calm or under peaceful terms, the larger economic trend cycles are a dominant force.

But during the war, the cycles of human emotions get extra strong. In, another words, cycles under 3 months, become a dominant force.

That's the overview or war markets. Sorry for a Gannish... Cycle Analytic responce.

One more thing is the flunctuation of prices tend to increase. Historically, the volatility of the market starts chopping up and down between regular slope of price trends. I guess it should be a good short-term (swing) trader market. I haven't had the change to go through intraday moves...

Well, just my 2 cents.

you are not the ONLY person. perhaps the only OTHER person ! i learned a HARD lesson shorting on the day of the iraqi invasion in 1991.

best,

surfer

 

[Spark]

Quote from Riskmanager:

Here´s a great link to a recent analysis from John Murphy, he compares the current situation with the last pre-war market from the first gulf war:

http://www.trading-ideas.com/MarketCommentary/mc122202-1.asp

i found this link very good. thx

 

[Spark]

Quote from marketsurfer:




you are not the ONLY person. perhaps the only OTHER person ! i learned a HARD lesson shorting on the day of the iraqi invasion in 1991.

best,

surfer

reversed the trend?

 

[Tradewinds]

This link has a ton of historical charts.

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Historical.htm#US

 

[Spark]

Quote from Tradewinds:

This link has a ton of historical charts.

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Historical.htm#US

This is what I was looking for since longtime. Thanks a lot Tradewinds....

 

[steve.larson]

Quote from Spark:

You mean like a patriotic rally that had happened for in the beginning hour after 911?

No, by "war" I do not mean 911.

911 was just the opposite.

After 911 the markets were closed for many days, and when they reopened, fear dominated everything, and the markets went down for 4 straight days.

 

[steve.larson]

Quote from Spark:



You mean like a patriotic rally that had happened for in the beginning hour after 911?

I mean 1/16/91 when Operation Desert Storm began. There were 10,000 sorties in 10 days, a tremendous show of force, optimism prevailed, and the markets went up and up, well, at least initially.