Any thoughts on this article?

interesting argument. I counter with this: It takes that kind of aggressiveness to reach the top. Once there, it's unnatural to cease being that way. (else you were a pretender all the way up, and pretenders almost NEVER get to the top. In trading, there are too many tests along the way designed to weed them out.)

time and chance will happen to everyone (including Taleb). Even the carefullest man alive, Howard Hughes, couldn't keep the maggots away forever.

edit. howard hughes is obviously not alive. typo. let's say, 'who lived', and acknowledge that it is hyperbole, but still makes the point.
 
Niederhofer's story is a good reminder why it is important to know who your investors are. I wouldn't want to have to explain this to Tony Soprano. Still, I would like to hear what Victor says when Tony asks, "What the f### were you thinking about?"
 
Tony Saliba, a Market Wizard options trader, has a saying:" Staying spread is staying alive."

When these monster traders blow up, they don't do it in anonymity. The floor knows someone is short the entire open interest. Once they get their foot on your neck, you don't get up.
 
Originally posted by chasinfla
interesting argument. I counter with this: It takes that kind of aggressiveness to reach the top. Once there, it's unnatural to cease being that way.

time and chance will happen to everyone (including Taleb). Even the carefullest man alive, Howard Hughes, couldn't keep the maggots away forever.
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What you are missing chasin is that the top is subjective... This is not a basketball game that is over in 4 quarters, you dont win the championship at the end of the season...

Time and chance do happen to us all chasin, THAT IS THE POINT!
When it happens to Taleb he has insured he will be able to keep playing the game...
 
Originally posted by Commisso


What you are missing chasin is that the top is subjective... This is not a basketball game that is over in 4 quarters, you dont win the championship at the end of the season...

Time and chance do happen to us all chasin, THAT IS THE POINT!
When it happens to Taleb he has insured he will be able to keep playing the game...
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there are things Taleb has insured himself against and things, in his smugness, he has not. I liken his style to this: Bring your men into the battlefield and instruct them to shoot one another, expecting that meteor to land only on your enemy.

i posted elsewhere, Taleb blows up in slow motion.
 
Originally posted by chasinfla


there are things Taleb has insured himself against and things, in his smugness, he has not. I liken his style to this: Bring your men into the battlefield and instruct them to shoot one another, expecting that meteor to land only on your enemy.

i posted elsewhere, Taleb blows up in slow motion.
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WOW you still don't get it... A meteor can only help Taleb not hurt him... His death will be no meteor... But he has insured that he has enough people on the battlefied that he can wait A VERY VERY VERY long time for the meteor to land on the enemy...

For him to bleed the death the market would probably have to move for a decade or two with no meteors...
 
Originally posted by Commisso


WOW you still don't get it... A meteor can only help Taleb not hurt him... His death will be no meteor... But he has insured that he has enough people on the battlefied that he can wait A VERY VERY VERY long time for the meteor to land on the enemy...

For him to bleed the death the market would probably have to move for a decade or two with no meteors...
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O, the self assurance of such a comment..."wow you still don't get it...."

i may not get it. but i do get this. catastrophic events that the market reacts quickly to, and recovers from, are most unpredictable in terms of benefit even to the long option holder (this has been my experience).

I also get that some meteors can wipe out Taleb's best laid plans. He is subject to the same phenomena of randomness. His money is only hedged in one arena. If he's depending on exchange transactions to facilitate his profits during a crisis, I daresay that's the weak link. There is enormous technological risk in what he does (just the issue of connectivity is interesting to ponder). There exist scenarios under which, no matter what his paper profits are, he would never realize them. Remote? Perhaps. More remote than 9/11? I don't think so.

Does he really think he is immune to being blindsided? Is not his entire premise that blindsiding <i>happens</i>? He, by definition, would have to be omniscient to be immune. Maybe one of those deep thinking kids he has working for him is a 'rogue trader?' Hey, expect the unexpected, right?
 
Originally posted by chasinfla

Does he really think he is immune to being blindsided? Is not his entire premise that blindsiding <i>happens</i>? He, by definition, would have to be omniscient to be immune. Maybe one of those deep thinking kids he has working for him is a 'rogue trader?' Hey, expect the unexpected, right?
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He can only be blindsided if he thinks he "knows" something... The one thing he knows is that he knows nothing... He is not placing bets on the predictability of the market he is placing bets on the unpredictability of the market... In a game with an unknown and infinite set of variables I'd say he is making a pretty sound bet... His blindsidedness would come in the form of a 100% predictable and efficient market... In this occurence the markets would not even exist...

If this were a game of checkers, chess, backgammon, even poker where the rules and variables are absolute than he would not have a job... But it is not, therefore the unexpected is to be expected...

Like Lao Tzu say "Those who think they know dont; those who know they dont know, know"

PEACE and good trading,
Commisso
 
another thing to consider is this. Dr. Niederhoffer is a contrarian. A contrarian prospers when the multitude gets blindsided. Further, Taleb's strategy is to lose money in order to make it, making him a contrarian of sorts. They are not so different, in that sense.
 
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