Any studies on who normally wins - option writer versus purchaser?

I was in insurance 20 years ago for brief time, hated it so decided to do something else.

Because I'm a very little part of this universe, I admit openly there must be things I have no idea about. Hence I said I'm open to hear from you specific examples. If you're not aware of any such solutions then what are we talking about?

I'm not sure you understand how insurance works. You can only pool the risks (aka diversify), you can't "lay off" (in hedge sense) risk. It doesn't matter what product someone offers, it can only transfer that risk on someone else.

I agree with you that this is not a zero sum game in the real world. But having said that, this is exactly why your further reasoning is flawed. If everything in life was a zero sum game, then there could be (theoretically) a way to hedge some risks. Since property/life gets destroyed permanently, at least parts of it, it is not a zero sum game, and you can not "hedge" that part of risk, only transfer it.

As a logical consequence of the above, notice that when (thanks to the mother nature, bad luck, act of God, Murphy law or whatever you want to call it) number of claims raises significantly then ALL insured need to pay higher premiums (then need to "chip in" more to the risk pool) regardless of the fact who was recently affected.

The examples you made (i.e. about flooded vehicles), yes you can extract some value from them (and it will be reflected in insurance company balance sheet) but regardless, some amount of materials and workmanship (or life, in the worst case) get's destroyed permanently and that's part of the equation that could never be "hedged" and has to be paid out from the premiums collected from ALL insured.

Think about for a minute: you could be paying insurance premiums all your life and never had any claims. What does that mean to you? Do you feel robbed of all that money? Do you think that 100% of your paid premiums are 100% profit to ins company?
I'm fully aware of how insurance works and not questioning it a bit. I'm asking you to think creatively, we're a couple steps beyond your typical underwriter's ability to think here, not a couple steps behind.

When a disaster happens, some entities benefits monetarily. If, hypothetically, there was one car company in the world and one reinsurance company in the world, the insurance company could buy calls on the car company stock and when a hundred thousand cars get wiped out by flooding the car company sells 100,000 new cars and their stock goes up so the call goes up so the insurance company laid off some of the risk. Obviously the car company might also coincidentally at the same time suffer from a diesel cheating scandal and the stock doesn't go up, or the leverage of the calls doesn't match the amount of the insurance loss, or there are more than one car company and more insurance company in the world...I get that it's a difficult and imperfect hedge which is probably why it isn't commonplace. That and the fact that insurance types are generally some of the least creative people on the planet and when confronted with an idea outside the norm default to the idea that the person who posed the idea must be a moron who somehow thinks they are robbed if they pay insurance but don't make a claim. My point is simply to answer the question of if it's possible to hedge any of the risk of the final reinsurer, which you asserted is categorically impossible. I don't think a categorical no is the correct answer, that's all. I'd say it's hard and you may not be able to hedge it all, but there certainly are assets that are negatively correlated to insurance risk, and perhaps some modern portfolio theory would benefit the insurance industry as it has the finance industry.
 
Eventually it will catch up to me.
 

Attachments

  • opt2.PNG
    opt2.PNG
    66.7 KB · Views: 14
The simple truth is that both strategies (buying and selling) can work. Whoever claims that the only way to make money in options is by selling premium (like Tom Sosnoff does) simply misleading you.

The key is to use mix of strategies and use the right strategy on the right underlying at the right price and the right time.

You cannot just (for example) backtest buying straddle 14 days before earnings on 5 random stocks and declare that the strategy doesn't work. You also cannot buy a calendar when VIX is at 30 - it won't work either.

Each strategy has its place. If you want to be an insurance company, make sure you have some protection (like vega/gamma positive trades) when disaster strikes. And don't use leverage, especially not with naked positions.
 
I see 100% loss there. Am I misreading anything?
Not on a straddle. On SVXY, and it was half position.

We encourage our members to look at the big picture, not single trades. The bottom line is 87% CAGR in the last 6 years, even with few big losers. And some of the big losers were hedged by other trades.
 
Not on a straddle. On SVXY, and it was half position.

We encourage our members to look at the big picture, not single trades. The bottom line is 87% CAGR in the last 6 years, even with few big losers. And some of the big losers were hedged by other trades.
87% CAGR after 100% loss?
 
No. around 5-6 on average with 10% allocation, and some positions are 5% allocation.

Please read the comments on the performance page, it's all there.
 
Back
Top