Any seed money for Crude Oil trading?

Yea the volatility in crude was really cheap a couple months ago. Volatility is cycical tho, those bets payoff when cycle changes occur not as good a bet now to put that strangle on as vol is a bit juicy! Lol
Quote from miniFORTUNE:

Hi ZRITRADER:

Are you entering on a cross of some sort, From your win rate it looks like a trend following system ?

Reason I ask is because you need to find a way to enter with limits and exit with limits as much as possible, the comish and slippage are the big factor here. Backtest results usually give false hope to folks who haven't been around the block for a few years.

In my experience trend following systems I have built with code have only done OK on longer timeframes because of the reduced slippage/comish factor.


Good luck anyway.

Good points!
Yes is a trend following but not on time frames but price movement. I do not use the traditional charting.

As far as limits on exits (SL or PT) did not show good results on Crude. The losses (very common) are minuscule but when CL moves, profits are unlimited and take care of losses and may be slippage, etc.

You are right as far as longer terms. I know from reading that Oil Companies and Transportation establishments make billions of dollars trading Crude on WEEKLY and MONTHLY CHARTS. They have millions on risk capital, programmers, robots etc.

Personally, if I had the funds, will not even trade the Crude. I will just buy a strangle on crude every month. It cost between $ 6000.00 to $ 7000.00 for the put and call on Crude. Month after month, for years Crude moves more than $ 6. Case in point, the Jul and Aug options profited more than $ 24.000.00 so far. Anyhow, hindsight and wishful thinking.

Back to reality. Waiting for the results on the Greek election. It is so much at stake.

Best!

miniFORTUNE
More...
 
Quote from miniFORTUNE:



Yes is a trend following but not on time frames but price movement. I do not use the traditional charting.
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Please don't tell me this is a backtest of Renko bars in NT?
 
Quote from miniFORTUNE:

Hi: Drm7!

Excellent idea of renting servers or working with brokers. So far I am dealing with AMP but I did not inquired yet. Good point.
My appreciartion!
miniFORTUNE
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And not that expensive.

I pay now about 180 USD (new server, got deliverd a week ago) in the US.
10tb traffic (yeah, I never need that)
4 core Intel
16gb memory
120gb hard disc
1ms (!) to my broker clearing system which is - obviously - colocated with the exchange. Good enough for me ;)

Chicago, obviously.

Current that machine into some virtual servers for different platforms (trating,forward validation etc.).
 
Simulated trading on Ninja, whether live on Sim101, or MarketReplay, has consistently ridiculously wrong fills - sadly, always giving you better fills than you would ever have live (even for LMT orders ... believe it or not, I have seen fills 10-ticks better than the LMT, this flaw goes way beyond the 1sec resolution, it is pure garbage).

So, please stop this masquerade for your own sake.


Even backtesting in Ninja, you are exposing yourself to optimistic fills for MKT & STP orders, and the default FillType doesn't really enforce the Slippage you ask for - At least this can be fixed (and since I am a nice person, I will attach my "BetterThenDefaultFillType.cs" for your pleasure - does a solid job for STP orders, for MKT orders it is better than the default fill type but there will never be a way to adequately model network delays & exchange server queues to give a reasonably good view on what fill you'd get for MKT orders - why don't you use STP orders for entries?)
 

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Hi Dom 993:

Thank you kindly.
Another eye opener

I thank the community for the feedback. Specially those that directed me to servers and the fallacy of NT back testing.

I learned from a poster than indeed there is seed money for trading futures, but not for me, just maybe for Shell Oil, Swift or J.B. Hunt.

Besides it looks like they already removed my tread from the trading section.

However with all due respect I will not give up with simulations, strategies and so for. I am convinced that not only have merit, but they have more discipline than me clicking the mouse. Seeing and hearing these little creatures (laptops) call the trades and post the signals with precision. It is awesome. The sim data agrees with the live, tic by tic. Before the end of the year I will have the servers. For those struggling traders like me, I encourage to close your ears to the experts, and explore this angle, it is unbelievable!

Any how it was worth. I thought it was some Venture Capital there for this endeavor. I just wanted to find out on this great ET community.

Thank you all. So long!

miniFORTUNE
 
Totally bad system. you are attempting hft using NT - this is as bad as it gets. No credence to your test results. I would bet 100$ that the posted strats will be negative under live market conditions.

Your average profit per trade is too bad. Gotta learn a lot about real market trading.
 
Quote from miniFORTUNE:

Hi ZRITRADER:

Are you entering on a cross of some sort, From your win rate it looks like a trend following system ?

Reason I ask is because you need to find a way to enter with limits and exit with limits as much as possible, the comish and slippage are the big factor here. Backtest results usually give false hope to folks who haven't been around the block for a few years.

In my experience trend following systems I have built with code have only done OK on longer timeframes because of the reduced slippage/comish factor.


Good luck anyway.

Good points!
Yes is a trend following but not on time frames but price movement. I do not use the traditional charting.

As far as limits on exits (SL or PT) did not show good results on Crude. The losses (very common) are minuscule but when CL moves, profits are unlimited and take care of losses and may be slippage, etc.

You are right as far as longer terms. I know from reading that Oil Companies and Transportation establishments make billions of dollars trading Crude on WEEKLY and MONTHLY CHARTS. They have millions on risk capital, programmers, robots etc.

Personally, if I had the funds, will not even trade the Crude. I will just buy a strangle on crude every month. It cost between $ 6000.00 to $ 7000.00 for the put and call on Crude. Month after month, for years Crude moves more than $ 6. Case in point, the Jul and Aug options profited more than $ 24.000.00 so far. Anyhow, hindsight and wishful thinking.

Back to reality. Waiting for the results on the Greek election. It is so much at stake.

Best!

miniFORTUNE
More...

It's really not possible for such a strategy to be profitable for any long period of time. Markets are not perfectly efficient, but they are efficient over time. If such a simple strategy was profitable, it would only be such for a limited period before the options were repriced to correctly factor in volatility. All the above trade is is a long on volatility, so what you're saying is that the options market in crude is stuck eternally in underpricing volatility, which simply can't be correct. If it was correct, then you would be a billionaire in no time. You said it yourself, a $6k margin resulted in a $24k win. You don't have $10k? After a year of trading such a goldmine, you'd be a billionaire.

Trading is no where this easy. You seem a bit new to the game. I would give it a few years of making real money before talking about getting funding from somewhere.
 
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