Any RealMoney Pro users?

im doing a trial on street insight. kass nailed the rally today.

Rally From Out of the Blue

By Doug Kass
Special to RealMoney.com
02/14/2003 12:32 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Doug Kass


Editor's note: This column appeared on Street Insight's The Edge trading diary before the market open on Feb. 14. Doug Kass is general partner for two investment partnerships, Seabreeze Partners and Kass Partners. To sign up for Street Insight, where you can see Kass' commentary every day, please click here.

Today, many observers believe that the only thing that can turn the stalling market is capitulation. A very high VIX reading (or other extreme sign in sentiment) seems to be a necessary ingredient to a meaningful recovery to most technicians and, increasingly, most fundamentalists.

I disagree: Our market rally might come out of the blue. In terms of magnitude, it likely will be greater than most believe possible now.
 
House of Pain Ahead for Bears
02/19/03 07:45 AM EST Several factors could combine to create a rally beyond what most can imagine.



Last week, I gave one of the keynote speeches, "Mastering the Art of Short-Selling," at the AIMR Annual Hedge Fund Conference in Philadelphia.

After my formal remarks, I took questions from the audience. The question was asked as to whether the short side had grown too crowded.

I responded in the following manner: My impression is that a great many of the "newbie" short-sellers are conducting themselves in the same way as the long buyers did in the last half of the 1990s -- they are essentially momentum-based investors.

From my perch, these newbie momentum-based short-sellers will likely end up like the momentum-based long buyers: a lot poorer.

As the market, over time, tends to dish out the most pain to the maximum number of participants, it seems to me that short-sellers -- who have been in the driver's seat -- will constitute a large latent demand component for stocks into the rise I anticipate.

Notwithstanding the popular sentiment polls, it further seems to me that the majority of market participants have a "glass half empty" mentality.

The large short interest and the general skepticism/disinterest on the part of many investors could be a strong cocktail that will benefit the truly contrarian position today (the bull).

Ergo, add to my Duct Tape Bottom and virtuous cycle that shorts get hurt and those massive funds domiciled in money market funds (which represent the alienated equity investor) create a Boo Hoo! rally beyond what most can imagine. (Let's call it The House of Pain for Bears!)

My market rating remains at +10.

none
 
this is a serious question, not a knock on any posters...

why do so many people think the 'contrarian' position is being a bull?

talking heads, writers, analysts, traders, etc. are mainly short-term negative..."until war breaks out in iraq"..and then almost uniformly bullish!

if someone can correct me, and show where this is NOT what's happening (though my sample size isn't connected to one another), please do so.

unless it's just 'for a trade', of course.
 
here is some brilliance from cramer.

A Healthy Market Would Wilt Here

By James J. Cramer
02/19/2003 12:30 PM EST
Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer


Bulls should want this market to go down today, maybe even triple-digit down.
 
ouch if you followed kass on this call. my street insite trial is up tomorrow. needless to say i wont be subscribing. there is nothing there worth $2000 bucks a year.

Quote from vhehn:

House of Pain Ahead for Bears
02/19/03 07:45 AM EST Several factors could combine to create a rally beyond what most can imagine.



Last week, I gave one of the keynote speeches, "Mastering the Art of Short-Selling," at the AIMR Annual Hedge Fund Conference in Philadelphia.

After my formal remarks, I took questions from the audience. The question was asked as to whether the short side had grown too crowded.

I responded in the following manner: My impression is that a great many of the "newbie" short-sellers are conducting themselves in the same way as the long buyers did in the last half of the 1990s -- they are essentially momentum-based investors.

From my perch, these newbie momentum-based short-sellers will likely end up like the momentum-based long buyers: a lot poorer.

As the market, over time, tends to dish out the most pain to the maximum number of participants, it seems to me that short-sellers -- who have been in the driver's seat -- will constitute a large latent demand component for stocks into the rise I anticipate.

Notwithstanding the popular sentiment polls, it further seems to me that the majority of market participants have a "glass half empty" mentality.

The large short interest and the general skepticism/disinterest on the part of many investors could be a strong cocktail that will benefit the truly contrarian position today (the bull).

Ergo, add to my Duct Tape Bottom and virtuous cycle that shorts get hurt and those massive funds domiciled in money market funds (which represent the alienated equity investor) create a Boo Hoo! rally beyond what most can imagine. (Let's call it The House of Pain for Bears!)

My market rating remains at +10.

none
More...
 
I think these [defense] stocks are going to go down until the shots are fired. Then they will put their moves on and I don't think you will be able to position yourself once that starts.

Great advice for RealMoney subscribers waiting to buy hundreds of thousands shares on the cheap. :D
 
Quote from dis:

I think these [defense] stocks are going to go down until the shots are fired. Then they will put their moves on and I don't think you will be able to position yourself once that starts.

Great advice for RealMoney subscribers waiting to buy hundreds of thousands shares on the cheap. :D
More...
only problem is cramer is holding RTN and LLL from much higher.hes down 24 points in LLL if hes still holding from his first buy point.
 
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