Any plays on earnings - 10/29/12

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daveo1

Hey guys I am a new options trader (fairly new) and they say the best way to learn your way is to see others play. I figure it may be hopeless to try an find people in my area who are dedicated traders so here I am trying this out.

My techniques have made me profitable by a few percent year after initially winning big and losing a little more, then ultimately gaining enough. ha

In any case I have been enjoying the volatility that comes with earnings and have been buying out right calls and puts the day or two before.

I am thinking about buying up to a week before on what people "think" the earnings will be because I am clearly noticing the sway of the market towards beliefs just before earnings.

Recent plays were a positive on a FB straddle and ACI straddle.

Aside from myself and what I have been up to (SELFISH ha). I was hoping to see other people's views for this week coming around.

Before I see others posts, I am bullish on earnings for PFE, F, and CHK. (Obviously F is very questionable). I am doing research on SIRI, RL, K, and Clorox over the weekend. Might not get to all of them of course considering I am pretty thorough.


Anyways any input and I'll be around. Thanks
 
Quote from Bry:

huge thread on this "My Option Trades" started by Ryan Patrick
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He should be aware this is a very risky, dart throwing type strategy, and Ryan who was doing the same thing, stopped posting after his last 3 or 4 trades.
I hope he is doing ok. But he risked about 1/3 of his account on those last 3 or 4 trades, and the trades didn't go well.
It's the type of strategy that sounds good in theory.
And it generally works when paper trading.
But is very risky, unpredictable, and potentially devastating in the "real world" over time.

Waaaaay to much "guessing and hoping" involved.
Using it for the occasional trade is one thing.
But not recommended as an over all strategy for all stocks and sectors.
 
I guess I don't have a strategy overall. I do understand the risk in what I am doing.

I am being as careful as possible. I don't have that much in order to sell calls and puts unless the stock is cheaper of course.

What is your strategy, not that it may work out for me, but I would like to hear an angle.
 
Your strategy is based on guessing and hoping.
The problem with your strategy is that when you guess and hope wrong, you will lose more than you gain when you guess and hope correctly.
Obviously you can guess and hope on stocks and sectors that have more predictable and consistant earnings than the more volatile ones. But the problem with that is, the more predictable the earnings, the less money you will earn guessing and hoping corrrectly.
In addition, given your super short time frame, you have theta working against you faster than a speeding train out of control.

However, I am simply theorizing, as I've never done what you are hoping to do. So I could be wrong.
Chances are you will be correct sometimes and incorrect other times.
But the likelihood is, your incorrect times will devastate your account more severely, than the correct times will grow it.
 
I hate play earning card. normally I will play after the earning out. only rare case, if there is confirmed setup lined up with the earning, I may try directional gap down/up bet.

most time try to guess and hope does not work, and waste of time.

I am buying some LVS 47.5 calls for the earning. so far good. I bought very cheap, it is tripled. I will let it go through this weeks earning, try to win 10 fold or more.

the reason is I bought LVS is LVS may follow wynm's earning price action. just hope wish la. it is a total gamble based on pure guess from other enterainment company's earning.

wish me good luck, LVS is tomroow AH
 
Quote from trader198:
GOOD LUCK!
a close above 47.00 would sure be nice for you. did u buy the 45 weekly calls?

I hate play earning card. normally I will play after the earning out. only rare case, if there is confirmed setup lined up with the earning, I may try directional gap down/up bet.

most time try to guess and hope does not work, and waste of time.

I am buying some LVS 47.5 calls for the earning. so far good. I bought very cheap, it is tripled. I will let it go through this weeks earning, try to win 10 fold or more.

the reason is I bought LVS is LVS may follow wynm's earning price action. just hope wish la. it is a total gamble based on pure guess from other enterainment company's earning.

wish me good luck, LVS is tomroow AH
More...
 
out of most at 0.7~0.8, bought it around 0.2~0.3. just left a little to gamble on the earning.

most time it does not work, since there is no information about the earning, so I take pre-caution. make sure i made money first, then let a littl to gamble, if lost, I am ok, I will boe glad I still made some. if I won, I feel good, but this will not assure me do it again.

just to satisfy my gambling psch. acutally that is not my plan.

I held 100lot BAC 9.5 call at 0.03, I might think it will hit 10+ friday.

I am too cautious. my mental status is not right. often after a series of winners, I become cautious. I should trade big and big, but on the contrary, smaller and smaller. kind of sick of this mental status.

I really do not like earning option trades. so I trade the underlying directly, that makes me feel I am in control.
 
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