nope
Any pacifists out there?
- Thread starter bobcathy1
- Start date
Yeah, war is great entertainment
Very cool is you don't have to be in harms way. Just like watching a football game.
As for Israel not "taking crap" like last time. Here is what I think....for what it is worth.
We have to remember that during Desert Storm, the US was able to get Israel to agree to restrain from retaliation. And they did (amazingly). But now the situation is different. First off, there is no coalition like there was in '91, which included Saudi Arabia, and other Arab nations. So Israel will (and should) feel more threatened. More vulnerable.
And while the scuds that were "lobbed" at Israel did not do a great deal of damage last time, there is little reason for Israel to not fear that the next time around, there will be more than conventional explosives carried by the Scuds. Israel will doubtfully depend on anti missile missiles (like the Patriots) to effectively stop the Scuds. The Patriot missiles were not 100% effective last time. Nothing is likely to be 100% effective.
And, now Israel is less hopeful of reaching a peace with the Palestinians. And Israel has a more hawkish leadership (for the moment). So this is a very dangerous situation.
It is also very important to realize that just as many who object to our "reasons" for going to war (i.e.: oil), the most popular of "reasons" for the Arab resentment to the US is, at the moment, the Israeli/Palestinian issue. While this is truly just a convenient excuse, it is a popular one in the Arab world, and more reason for Israel to be very nervous about any attack that goes their way. And Saddam has already demonstrated that he is not reluctant to try and draw Israel in. He did last time, for no reason. Israel was a bystander. Iraq did not send Scuds to Saudi Arabia, which was a participant in the American effort. So Israel will always be the easy target. It has been very fashionable to hate Israel and to attack Israel since the inception of that little country.
So what happens if Israel is attacked? What happens if Iraq "lobs" some Scuds with biological or chemical warheads? Or a "dirty" bomb?
Well, what would you do if you were threatened with your very existence?
While it would undoubtedly be entertaining to watch this on TV while sitting back with a Fosters in Australia for Daniel M, for those who live in the middle east, I don't think the entertainment value would be so great.
Also, don't forget, even the very best television cameras are not designed to continue to provide "entertainment" right through a real war.
Does Israel have nuclear weapons? Yeah, they do. Will they use them? Hopefully not. BUT, it can't be counted on to not happen. If they feel it is fight or perish, they will fight.
A little history is important here. It is crucial to remember WHY Israel exists now. It is crucial to remember their slogan "Never Again". Jews went quietly to their deaths in World War II. They never will again. There is no reason to expect them (Israel) to show restraint if attacked now. If they can shoot down a few dilapidated Scuds before they enter Israeli airspace, well then maybe they will show restraint. But if just one gets through, and does any real damage. Or is shown to (or even suspected of) having mass destruction capabilities, there will be no restraint.
It will be retaliation. And it won't be like the 6 day war. 25 years is a long time. Israel, like the US, has no patience for a conventional ground war. They, like us, have the technology to just annihilate their enemies. They will do as much damage as quickly as possible. They will not mobilize an army of foot soldiers. They almost lost the war in 1973, and they will not hold back if drawn into another war.
So Dan, while I am sure you may think it would be cool to see a mushroom cloud over Baghdad (if the cameras don't melt), that will not be the end of it. There is so much hatred in the middle east, that if Israel nukes Iraq, then it will likely start a chain reaction. If other Islamic countries that have nuclear capabilities get sucked in (and there are a few....Pakistan we know has the bomb, and it is conceivable that Saudi Arabia does, and we know Turkey does, and it is not unlikely that Syria has a few old Russian weapons in their arsenal), well, it really could lead to armageddon.
And if the middle east goes up in a storm of mushroom clouds, how long will it take for the fallout (literal and figurative) to reach even Australia?
War is not healthy for children and other living things. It is not entertainment, and death is really pretty permanent.
So among all the other reasons to hope that we do not need to get into a shooting war with Iraq (which seems almost a foregone conclusion as of today), the Israeli factor may be the most dangerous of the wildcards.
Israel will never just sit back and take those "lobs" again. Not a chance. They will retaliate. It is just a matter of how severely. I truly believe they will do it in the most efficient manner possible.
While this does not necessarily mean they will resort to using nuclear weapons, it is not a possibility to be overlooked. Isreal has a lot of weapons at it's disposal. And a lot of delivery systems. And a lot of intelligence...probably the best in the world. So maybe they can make some very effective tactical strikes against Iraq without resorting to using nuclear weapons. And maybe that will help shorten the whole war. But the very real possibility of them using nukes does exist. And if they do use them.....well, there is no telling what the end results will be. But there is one thing for sure. The end results can not be good!!!
Peace,
Rs7
Of course, in Biblical times, the middle east WAS the world pretty much. And now, it is the hotbed of insanity. Too much oil. Too much religion. Too much hatred, envy, and disparity between rich and poor.
Too much everything except freedom and peace and in most places, not enough education to boot. So this being the place for Armageddon to begin, really is no great "revelation". Just makes sense.
MarcD
I know that Dan.....and I was just busting on you for being in Australia.
But the topic really is serious. There are, as we know, too many people that really do think it would just be a great spectator sport.
Look at how much clamoring for war we have seen on these boards. I know you are not one of the warmongers. I know you are too smart and too sensible. But it seemed like a good opening for me to state my case against Israel getting involved. It really is a frightening scenario.
Peace,
rs7That concept takes an understanding by both sides. It was relevant during the Cold War and the deterrence of Mutual Assured Destruction, a scenario the computer played out in the movie.
Times have changed and, unfortunately, MAD is not a valid posture against terrorists armed with nukes or other weapons of mass destruction.
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United States World Intervention
Ranked By Year
http://www.coreyturner.com/usa-intervention.asp
regards
wild
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I see your point - incredible link! I've never seen that all compiled in one place. I've walked by the CFR bldg in NY and this just goes to show that these people don't mind playing "god".
United States World Intervention
Ranked By Year
http://www.coreyturner.com/usa-intervention.asp
regards
wild
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I see your point - incredible link! I've never seen that all compiled in one place. I've walked by the CFR bldg in NY and this just goes to show that these people don't mind playing "god".
Quote from hapaboy:
That concept takes an understanding by both sides. It was relevant during the Cold War and the deterrence of Mutual Assured Destruction, a scenario the computer played out in the movie.
Times have changed and, unfortunately, MAD is not a valid posture against terrorists armed with nukes or other weapons of mass destruction.
Absolutely right. I was old enough to go to Vietnam and did. Not all of my parts and pieces came back but others suffered more of course. I sure don't want anyone to go through those types of experiences. However, as Hapaboy implies above not all peoples feel the same or have the same frame of reference as we do. Warm fuzzy thought and diplomacy won't always work. Peace is rarely if ever established and maintained through diplomacy. Rather by shared values and common benefits. Those are things we do not share with parts of the arab world and that's one reason talk is not likely to succeed here.
RS7: I must agree Israel is the wild card. If attacked I believe they will respond this time. Hopefully the US can persuade them to leave the nukes at home. If not it's all over.
Someone above mentioned the Eurocrats not wanting to take this on themselves. I think it's more a matter of they are incapable of it and that's a cause of some of the anti-American resentment. That's understandable I think. It must be difficult to know that your safety is dependent on a country you hate because of your jealousy and resentment.