Quote from luisHK:
I hoped as a CTA we could find Cordier's performance published somewhere... Do you know wether him stopping the weekly update has to do with poor performance in this market ?
Besides I (re...)ordered today "Trading Options to Win: Profitable Strategies and Tactics for Any Trader " which you recommended. It seems to be dealing mostly with selling FOP so i'm looking forward to more input on the topic. Cordier's book is interesting but short and very much one sided , I hope Jonhston will give a more balanced view athough from the reviews on amazon he looks favorably biaised to selling commoditities FOP as well.
I think the main factor in suspending the weekly update was the fact that most or all of his clients lost most of their money (at least for now) when PFG Best went under. He was clearing through them.
However I believe (without hard evidence) that he probably also had a string of losses prior to that on some positions over quite a few months, and had cut back anyway on the updates. I am just basing that on some of the casual remarks in his updates and on my estimate of what likely happened to the positions he mentioned over time.
They would not be huge losses because he does diversify widely and cuts losses off very quickly. I would say he appears to be very conscientious and diligent and follows fundamentals and market psychology very assiduously.
Of course the collapse of PFG put a severe dent in his business as many of his clients of course abandoned him (some are suing him for using PFG) and he has had to start over again with a new clearing firm.
He still does publish his newsletter which shows his views and approach on many commodities over the months. You can access it through the web site. They do not pester you at all if you sign up. The fact that they will not quote performance, even informally over the phone, is indicative of the general carefulness in their business (with the exception of going with PFG of course).
Stu Johnston does have a broader world-view and it is an excellent book, although somewhat idiosyncratic in his organization and approach. Probably you do need to build your own approach because his is a bit tortuous / convoluted. He does go long at times and uses a broader range of options and approaches. He trades stock options as well as futures options and tends to go for "special situations" quite a bit which are subjective.