Any one trade bund outright?

[THE-BEAKER]

Quote from ASusilovic:

There is another method to trade the bunds as well :

listen to the central bankers, follow US T-Notes ( correlation analysis ? ) and from time to time high volume flows....

yes that would have worked extremely well the last few months.

not

 

[ynox1]

Quote from $preader:
Rather than trade bunds with a $10,000 account,buy 10,000 lottery tickets - you've got more chance of hitting the jackpot. [/B]

If that is how you feel, you really should not be trading it.
The truth is, it moves around, it is still technical, it still moves on fundamentals, so there are still lots of opportunities to make money in it, you have to be persistent.

 

[$preader]

Quote from ynox1:

If that is how you feel, you really should not be trading it.
The truth is, it moves around, it is still technical, it still moves on fundamentals, so there are still lots of opportunities to make money in it, you have to be persistent.

I know plenty of people who have been persistent,so persistent in fact that they ran out of money,paid their clearer,the Exchange,their software provider,actually everyone except themselves - sound familiar?

I see it in there all the time,it's the market with so much promise but ultimately it is just a guess,what works in there one week doesn't the next.

Rather than have slow death by bund,go out and buy those lottery tickets,you won't win but at least you'll lose your money quickly.

 

[ynox1]

Quote from $preader:

I know plenty of people who have been persistent,so persistent in fact that they ran out of money,paid their clearer,the Exchange,their software provider,actually everyone except themselves - sound familiar?

I see it in there all the time,it's the market with so much promise but ultimately it is just a guess,what works in there one week doesn't the next.

Rather than have slow death by bund,go out and buy those lottery tickets,you won't win but at least you'll lose your money quickly.

Very true about people quitting and not making money, but that is happening with traders in every market. But just because you can't make money in the Bund, that does not mean others can't. There are lots of traders making money just trading the bund, accept that! It might sound that I am repeating myself, but the truth is, there are still lots of opportunities in there.
By the sounds of things, I think you never really traded it either, probably had a few trades every now and again, they were probably bad trades, and now you are scared.
And why are you even posting on this thread anyway? Is this thread called "Any one trade SPREADS"??

 

[$preader]

Quote from ynox1:

Very true about people quitting and not making money, but that is happening with traders in every market. But just because you can't make money in the Bund, that does not mean others can't. There are lots of traders making money just trading the bund, accept that! It might sound that I am repeating myself, but the truth is, there are still lots of opportunities in there.
By the sounds of things, I think you never really traded it either, probably had a few trades every now and again, they were probably bad trades, and now you are scared.
And why are you even posting on this thread anyway? Is this thread called "Any one trade SPREADS"??

Obviously touched a nerve with the comment about working for nothing.2008 not started out quite as planned?

Hope your judgement of the bund is better than your perception of my bund trading history.

Somehow I doubt it.

Come to think of it why are you even posting on this thread,is it called ' need crappy advice from a fake bund trader '.

 

[ynox1]

Quote from $preader:

Obviously touched a nerve with the comment about working for nothing.2008 not started out quite as planned?

Hope your judgement of the bund is better than your perception of my bund trading history.

Somehow I doubt it.

Come to think of it why are you even posting on this thread,is it called ' need crappy advice from a fake bund trader '.

How old are you? this is seriously getting out of hand, and mainly, away from the topic of this thread.
I don't have the time to have childish arguments, and I don't think other traders give a sh*t if you think I am a fake bund trader or not.
If someone else wants to get back to the topic of this thread and talk about trading the Bund, I am around.

 

[vita]

Quote from Dogfish:

I was asked how to look out for games being played, here is one way
One tip is watch out for "lucky" fills. If you join the back of a 2170 bid at a level in a down trend and you get filled when only 174 trade it shows that the guy with the 2000 lot has adjusted his order by one additional lot which will send his "new" order of 2001 to the back of the queue and shoves you to the front. This shows the guy with the 2000 bid has no intention of being filled long and is probably the offer at the price(s) above. As locals see the large bid they will tend to buy into the price above getting him short in the process. As soon as he gets a partial fill on his 2001 bid he will flip the order to the offer now nicely short the price(s) above. Those locals who bought are now offside at least 2 ticks and will generally take the loss by selling into the lower bids, usually his, thereby getting him out of his short.

Great post Dogfish. I've had an observation which I call "Market Maker Skew". I was curious to get you feedback about it. The skew happens in the Bid/Ask histograms, when the market trending. As an example, when the market is rallying both Bid and Ask Histogram are skewed upward. The way I justified it is that the MM's position is getting too short and they move their offers further up not to get lifted. They also move the their Bids closer to the market to cover their shorts and neutralize their book.
What're your thoughts on this observation and my justification of it?

 

[jordi742]

Quote from Cutten:

Ok, let's say Harris does 2000 lots and makes 20 mill in one year. That's an average of 3.3 ticks per day. AFAIK Paul Rotter's best year was like 30 mill Euros, and he does 2000-3000+. So again, an average of maybe 3.5-4 ticks per day.

5.6 ticks per day would make someone a significantly better trader than 2 of the highest earning biggest size traders in the market. Forgive me for being sceptical that an ET poster achieves this using a 1 min stochastic crossover system.

This is about as likely as every bucket shop trainee making 10x size per day after a month on the TT simulator.

THAT'S WRONG. In an interview in www.fow.com done many years ago , the flipper said we has trading 1000- 2000 lots and making 50m€. So that means 12 ticks per day , not 4 !.

 

[TraDaToR]

Quote from jordi742:

THAT'S WRONG. In an interview in www.fow.com done many years ago , the flipper said we has trading 1000- 2000 lots and making 50m€. So that means 12 ticks per day , not 4 !.

The flipper was trading 1000-2000 lots per day for 12 ticks??? Are you talking clips or volume? I must be missing something...

It seems huge. 1.2 ticks per day for 10000-20000 lots sounds more logical( or a little more like 1.6 or so to cover fees ).

Great thread by the way.

 

[trade4succes]

Do "flippers" still exist?