Any long term strugglers out there?

[londonkid]

my comment re blackjack involved no counting...i was just playing basic strategy, i KNOW the casino has a long term 0.5% edge over me...point was that i was just lucky that i won after playing 300 hands...eddie is thinking if he does 300 trades and makes money, he must have an edge, alternatively if he does not make money, then he does not have an edge...i'm pointing out you can't tell either way from such a small sample size.

Playing 1000 hands of blackjack after memorising basic strategy should be compulsory for new traders. If we are talking small edges then your comment about 300 hands not being sufficient holds. If you have a large edge though this will become evident over a smaller sample.

 

[Visaria]

Say eddie does 300 trades and makes a lotta money...should we then conclude he has a large edge?

 

[londonkid]

Say eddie does 300 trades and makes a lotta money...should we then conclude he has a large edge?

No as he is a newbie. I am talking about someone who knows what they are doing with a large edge.

 

[Visaria]

If i asked the question as to how you would know if you had an edge or not, what would you say? Could you define it? How specific can you be? Genuinely interested, since this is a question i often ponder.

 

[candles]

I am talking about someone who knows what they are doing with a large edge.

Yes. Like a bank trader who has access to specialised orderflow information unavailable to retail traders for example.

 

[Eddiemorra]

Yes. Like a bank trader who has access to specialised orderflow information unavailable to retail traders for example.

Would you say without such info and just using charts, we're all essentially just flipping coins, and don't have an actual edge?

 

[Visaria]

nothing wrong with coin flip trades as long as the payoff is better than 1:1

 

[FXTraderSK]

Yes. Like a bank trader who has access to specialised orderflow information unavailable to retail traders for example.

Or a retail trader who understands how order flow works and can piece together likely order flow in the book via reverse engineering TA, understanding the macro environment, understanding important fundamentals, and understanding how the weak hands lose. It's really not that hard.

All in all, if you've been trading 3-4 years full time and still consider yourself struggling, you should really accept defeat and find a new career.

 

[candles]

Would you say without such info and just using charts, we're all essentially just flipping coins, and don't have an actual edge?

You need an edge. Price charts don't cut the mustard.

 

[londonkid]

You need an edge. Price charts don't cut the mustard.

oh my! dont dismiss charts but certainly dismiss 97%+ of what other people say about charts.