Any long term strugglers out there?
- Thread starter Eddiemorra
- Start date
Once I have a hundred or so trades, and hopefully am back to account highs, I'd like someone who's good at statistics to analyse the results and tell me if it's just luck or not. I have no idea
Oh, just realised I'm back to account highs, back where I was on the 11th September.
So I finally recovered that really bad few days. Lets see how we get on from now....
So I finally recovered that really bad few days. Lets see how we get on from now....
Yeah, you're right.
I think i'd need a good few hundred.
I also think that, from where I am now in terms of this experiment
(100 odd trades so far, up about 250 points, 9 trading sessions), if I go back into negative territory, I can write it off as a failure, as I don't think that would happen to someone with an edge.
I hope someone who knows a little about analysing results and statistics and this sort of stuff can chip in.
Based on the last set of results you showed, I think all you have to do is cut losers short. I'm not good at analyzing data, but it was obvious to me from your last list that most trades that worked only had a MAE of... hmmm... was it 6 or so points? Even looking at the above little list, your MAE is 7.5. So if you make your stop loss be automatically at anything past 8, I think you prevent bigger losers. Here your average win is about 27. What is your average loss? I bet its easily this high as well, or at the very least much higher than it should be. So all you have to do is cut your losers short and you're set I think.
Now if your last few days that were bad you say has losers that are 10 points or lower, this means you had many many loses in a row. And if this is the case, then sure, your system might need work, but I bet this isn't the case. Maybe throw up the stats of those few losing days... you never seem to show those stats... just the winning stats.... and we need to analyze your losing stats.
Here's where we stand at the moment.