Any long term strugglers out there?

[k p]

Reading post after post and thread after thread about how TA doesn't work written by those who so obviously don't know how TA is supposed to work gets a bit old. I am not here to teach TA or to give away edges. Those links from Big Hog point to a solid starting point for learning how TA might provide a tradable edge. There is plenty of solid TA info here at ET for anyone interested.

Thanks for the reply and the above chart. Looks like a mixture of 2 MA's along with some aggregate way to plot price, not made up of individual ticks, but combined in some fashion perhaps.

At any rate though, your above reply gets to the heart of the matter. You say that it gets a bit old to read about how TA doesn't work when used by those who don't know how to use TA. But then you say there is plenty of solid TA info here at ET. What if those using TA incorrectly have gotten it from ET? Its like saying eating fruits is good for you, and also saying when you eat a spoiled fruit, it gives you a tummy ache. (there isn't enough information here to make any decisions) Without a person being pointed to what is, for simplistic purposes, good TA vs. bad TA, or simply good application versus bad, its not fair to state that those using it and aren't having luck with it are doing something wrong. Put another way, only once you know what works and how to use it can you then begin to grasp what doesn't work. So your reply is a bit tricky.

I know some traders make lots of money, and I know lots of traders lose lots of money. But just knowing this in no way helps me figure out which trader is which. When I figure out who is killing it, I no longer have this problem. (ie. The solution to the problem becomes clear once you know the solution... akin to saying there is lots of TA info here at ET, some good, some bad, but its there somewhere!)

 

[zbestoch]

What if those using TA incorrectly have gotten it from ET?

I spoonfed a real nugget from @bighog above. And I wasn't the only one who found. @KDASFTG noted that "ET is one hell of a treasure hunt!"

In response to bighog's post, kdasftg said "I hope you come to realize that BigHog just pointed out a real €œbiggie today, as he has before. And just like a €œdiamond in the rough€, their true beauty as jewels is only realized through the œCutting and Polishing€ process. But as he also pointed out: 'œThe answer is well known but is so darn simple many believe it just "can't be that freaking easy€!' In my opinion, if you are wise, you will pick up this gemstone and get busy €œCutting and Polishing€ and make the final touches, so that this gem'€™s true beauty will be all your own."

If you can't tell someone who is making TA work for himself (e.g. @Handle123, @bighog @NoDoji) from someone who isn't (e.g. @Eddiemorra - no offense intended, eddiemorra), then go outside of ET. Read Kroll, Edwards & Magee, John Hill. This might be useful:

FIVE APPROACHES USED BY THE BEST
TRADING SYSTEMS
The top winning trading systems that we track basically fall into five
different categories. That's it! All of the profitable trading systems that
we have analyzed, has evolved from five basic approaches. And they are:
1. Donchian channel.
2. Moving average cross over.
3. Short-term volatility based open range breakout.
4. S&P day trade.
5. Pattern recognition.

That is copied verbatim from John Hill's Ultimate Trading Guide, and should give one a good idea down which avenues one might choose to window shop. As for myself, I have found moving averages and pattern recognition to work best. Reading @Handle123, @NoDoji, and @bighog's system/method oriented posts, it would seem they too also utilize MA's and pattern recognition. As bighog said, "the answer is well known but is so darn simple many believe it just "can't be that freaking easy"

 

[k p]

I spoonfed a real nugget from @bighog above. And I wasn't the only one who found. @KDASFTG noted that "ET is one hell of a treasure hunt!"

In response to bighog's post, kdasftg said "I hope you come to realize that BigHog just pointed out a real €œbiggie today, as he has before. And just like a €œdiamond in the rough€, their true beauty as jewels is only realized through the œCutting and Polishing€ process. But as he also pointed out: 'œThe answer is well known but is so darn simple many believe it just "can't be that freaking easy€!' In my opinion, if you are wise, you will pick up this gemstone and get busy €œCutting and Polishing€ and make the final touches, so that this gem'€™s true beauty will be all your own."

If you can't tell someone who is making TA work for himself (e.g. @Handle123, @bighog @NoDoji) from someone who isn't (e.g. @Eddiemorra - no offense intended, eddiemorra), then go outside of ET. Read Kroll, Edwards & Magee, John Hill. This might be useful:

FIVE APPROACHES USED BY THE BEST
TRADING SYSTEMS
The top winning trading systems that we track basically fall into five
different categories. That's it! All of the profitable trading systems that
we have analyzed, has evolved from five basic approaches. And they are:
1. Donchian channel.
2. Moving average cross over.
3. Short-term volatility based open range breakout.
4. S&P day trade.
5. Pattern recognition.

That is copied verbatim from John Hill's Ultimate Trading Guide, and should give one a good idea down which avenues one might choose to window shop. As for myself, I have found moving averages and pattern recognition to work best. Reading @Handle123, @NoDoji, and @bighog's system/method oriented posts, it would seem they too also utilize MA's and pattern recognition. As bighog said, "the answer is well known but is so darn simple many believe it just "can't be that freaking easy"

Excellent... this is much more detailed so thank-you. I'm actually doing my own thing now, and I am at the point of thinking this can't be this easy, and just have to get past the "win some, lose some" problem, but at long as the losses are small and wins are bigger, then it should be full steam ahead.

I completely agree with your list of suggested members. The trouble is that I cannot for the life of me understand Handle's charts. I try and try, and I can see what he is trying to do, but I simply cannot figure out where suggested entries, exits and stops are. What I do love about his approach though is that its simple and focused on keeping risk low. I can see for my personality that controlling risk is of utmost importance until I feel a bit more comfortable, so I'm all about looking for low risk entries with tight stops and just let the chips fall where they may.

 

[fxwizard]

Are there any other people here who have been at this for a LONG time and are still not really any
further than when they first tried?!!

Lets say, at least 3-4 years of FULL DAYS practicing/studying/starring at charts till your eyes bleed/demo trading/live trading etc.

I find it hard to believe that it's actually possible to succeed at this 'long term' coming at it from a charting angle (which is what i've always tried)
(I know of a few legitimate/rich traders who advise against charts/Technical Analysis/price action etc)

I've had spells of success over the last 5 years or so, but in hindsight, It was just luck.
The market is good at fooling you into thinking you have an 'edge'.
Even with 'context', chart patterns tend to 'work' as much as they don't.

I feel slightly alone, though.
I'm sure there's others out there (the current state of the pnl thread would suggest so, compared to the olden days), but even with the anonymity of the internet, some might
be too embarrassed to admit such failings.

I'd like to hear from anyone else in a similar situation, your story in bried, your conclusions, and your plans going forward.

thanks

That don't mean nothing. Imagine you're training in karate, except you're self-taught vs attending a dojo. Obviously it's going to take you a long time to master the same moves as a guy visiting a dojo regularly.

You can do 1000's of kicks and you will still suck compared to the guy who trains with a skilled master for 3 hrs/week. That's what I'm reading from the posts in this thread. Guys spending years getting nowhere b/c their method is wrong.

Now, the problem with trading is, trainers (the legitimate ones) don't really exist. They're either holed up in their trading room too busy making money, or too busy running some businesses on the side to really care about teaching their stuff.

So here it is, if you can't find a real guru, at least read their work: (Certified by yours truly to contain 66.66% of the stock market secrets. I know the other 33.33%, but I dare not tell to anyone)

A. How to make money in stocks by Williams J. O'Neil
B. How I made $3M in the stock market by Nicolas Darvas
C. My own secret. (Obtained by observing the NASDAQ live for 2 years thus far --- I don't mean spending a few weekends looking at 2 years worth of data, I mean actually following the NASDAQ for 2 years).

Each of the above contains 1/3 of ALL market secrets! I have never seen anything in the market (that is anything playable by the average trader) that didn't fit EXACTLY into one of those 3 categories.

LASTLY, I WANT TO DRIVE THIS MESSAGE INTO EVERYONE' HEAD: IT TAKES 4 YEARS TO EARN A BACHELOR'S DEGREE. Doctors take even longer (4 additional years of medical school). Personally, I think I've had it made when I've fully discovered 100% of the stock market secrets in 2 years from reading those guru's materials. It's no shame to be taking 4 years or longer to graduate from the trading school that is your actual trading room...

 

[pauk]

If you can't tell someone who is making TA work for himself (e.g. @Handle123, @bighog @NoDoji) from someone who isn't (e.g. @Eddiemorra - no offense intended, eddiemorra), then go outside of ET.

Shouldn't have been too dificult in this instance, since Eddie admitted it himself and started the thread saying so!

If that is what passes for TA, then it can be no wonder why so many piss and moan about how TA doesn't work.

but then you used handle and nodoji as good examples. Handle uses head+shoulders patterns apparently (among others). I imagine just about every loser on the forum has experience with attempting to make such patterns work.
Nodoji uses lots of trendlines. MA's, measured moves etc - not too disimilar from the chart by Eddie himself!

 

[Eddiemorra]

no offense intended, eddiemorra

Takes a lot to make me cry
Besides, trading Gods are similing on me at the moment!
Thanks for your thoughts/posts
regards.

 

[candles]

NQ.

 

[i am nobody]

B. How I made $3M in the stock market by Nicolas Darvas

I think the title was:"How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market." ops:
Which is 33% less than $ 3Million. So the value of 33% you pretend should be reduced by 33% too? Which leaves us 22%.
Where can we find the missing 11%?

 

[Visaria]

trade for eddie:

short Nov Brent crude oil @ 4870, stop 5050

 

[zbestoch]

but then you used handle and nodoji as good examples. Handle uses head+shoulders patterns apparently (among others). I imagine just about every loser on the forum has experience with attempting to make such patterns work.
Nodoji uses lots of trendlines. MA's, measured moves etc - not too disimilar from the chart by Eddie himself!

I agree. Most will have failed to learn correctly to identify these patterns, failed correctly to identify a measuring move from a random swing, and failed correctly to draw a trendline that follows an actual trend. If one cannot identify and apply these correctly, then there is, of course, no hope that one will be able to develop a trading algorithm that will yield a consistently profitable result over the long run. The fault is their understanding and ability, not in TA, or the stars, or internet personae. I have an automated system that trades the 6E using nothing more than a couple of moving averages applied to a specific type of price chart. It has been profitable for years. If I gave you the chart "interval" and the MA parameters, you would not get the same results as I do without also knowing how I use the MA's to define entry, how I define the stop loss, and how and when I take profits - and even then, you'd have to have the ability to let the system run without interference or second guessing on your part. Without that additional information or ability, your results would probably suffer, possibly producing a net loss over the long run, and you might then conclude that "TA doesn't work," or "MA's don't work." TA is not random, and it is not subjective. Incorrectly applied TA, however, is almost always random and subjective. I do not believe, from what I have read here at ET that either @Handle123 or @NoDoji are doing anything random, undefined, or haphazard with respect to their understanding and application of TA.