Any long term strugglers out there?

[Humpy]

Don't drop the day job until you are consistently profitable

But if you are retired like me - bliss ( no wife or kids to worry about too - bliss * 2 ) as I plot my next move from my fav armchair !!

I have been watching that gold mining series from the Yukon ! No thanks dude ! I did that sorta thing in my youth !

 

[Humpy]

I have borrowed this article from elsewhere, I hasten to add, before someone mistakes me for being clever.

Good traders = nurture; great traders =nature. Probably! You’ll note from the FAQ title that the question asks whether good traders are born or made. Arguments have raged about this for yonks and, doubtless, will continue to do so for a while yet. Less contentious is whether great traders are born or made. Many members will say that mother nature rules this elite roost. Interestingly, one ‘great’ trader called Richard Dennis believed that anyone could learn to trade profitably, and set out to prove it with his famous ‘Turtle Traders’ experiment in the 1980s. (For more about him and the Turtles – see ‘Useful Links’ in post #3).

Sapping your confidence
Broadly speaking, as a trader, you’ll fall into one of two camps: either you’re successful (by your own definition of success) or you’re not. If you’re in the former camp, you may have a view on the nature Vs nurture issue, based upon your skill, knowledge and experience. If you’re in the latter camp, you might be thinking that good traders are born and not made. Additionally, the little voice inside your head may be telling you that you’re flogging a dead horse and to give up and make your fortune some other way. Ignore that voice – it’s not helpful. Quitting may be the best thing to do – but be sure to do it for the right reasons. Otherwise, in the back of your mind you’ll always have that nagging thought that if only you’d stuck at it a bit longer and worked at it a bit harder – you would have made it – big time! No, it’s much better to . . .

Ask the right questions
Whether good traders are born or made is something of a red herring and, arguably, not that important. What is important – especially if you’re new to the business and/or you’re struggling - are the answers to these 2 questions:
1. Do you have what it takes to be successful, or . . .
2. If not, can you acquire the qualities required to be successful?
The long answer will address these fundamental questions. By the end of it, you’ll have a good idea as to whether or not you’ve got what it takes - or whether you can develop the personality traits needed to make money consistently. Either you’ll walk away knowing that you’re not suited to trading, or you’ll have the confidence and enthusiasm to soldier on. If you decide to stick with it, you may not become a great trader; but at least you’ll know that you have the potential to become a competent one.

 

[AfterLOS]

The market is good at fooling you into thinking you have an 'edge'.

some might be too embarrassed to admit such failings.

"embarrassed" is a piece of cake, this be where the real juice is ..... how about, "when the market has taken everything from you, your money, your dignity, your self-worth and left with nothing, lying in a gutter - but its not the time to leave; you get up and start from there because if you don't, that massive pasting was for naught"


EDGE: only Clint & an Injun EVER understood true EDGE

 

[Blackdollars]

When I hear stats like this (and i've heard them before) it starts to sound like a lottery.
You can imagine being on a forum for lottery players, discussing methods, lucky numbers, best areas to buy tickets, best days to purchase them etc etc!
Is it all just survivorship bias (accounting for the 'winners'??)

I'm in the same boat for about ~6 years or so. I was laid of on September 5th 2013. I actually made a profit that year, but happened to give it all back and then some this year. I have developed a strategy which is kind of weired and probably laughable to some. I actually now feel there is an aspect of gambling in trading, and I had to find a way to tip the scales in my favor using math just as a gambling house does. However I have to understand I will suffer losses, but over time I will win. A gambling house has the same mentality. BUT YOU DO NEED A STRATEGY THAT WORKS ENOUGH TO BE PROFITABLE! From my back testing I estimate I will be right a minimum of 40%.

My first rule: STAY AWAY FROM "TRADE GURUS". If there system worked so well, why are they working so hard to sell it?

 

[Blackdollars]

So basically don't give up, 99% of people are trying to over complicate it, it's really not that hard, work on a chop system, then extend that to trading chop only with TREND and hey presto instant money come chop or trend

Also it's not so much about the entry cause you can't accurately predict what will happen,

DAX is the best to trade currently, Forex well I've given up on that, to variable, YM next best if you can't trade dax.
Keep it simple!!

I like most of your thoughts. I think people do over complicate things. I think the reason for that is the massive amount of "Trade Gurus" out there. And we think if we listen to all of them, then we will get an edge and never loose. The truth is the "Trade Gurus" are actually "Marketing/Sales Gurus" and they all give you vague info but don't teach us how to actually trade sucessfully. If you really think about it, if the trade sucessfully, why would they be going through all this trouble of selling you something. For example, did Lebron James quit basketball because he is so good that he want to give other people the knowledge of basketball instead of play himself?

You are right, the trick is that you have to trade with the trend, we all hear it so much and we ignor it. Some of us go on mission imposible and try to find a bottom or top of a trend.

I disagree about forex, I find it more predictable, in the long term (I swing trade on daily charts).

 

[Blackdollars]

Daytrading almost never works unless you have a read edge that doesn't rely on directional bets to make money, also TA applied to the lower time frames (1min, 5min, 10min, etc) almost never works because there is just too much noise in those time frames.

Trend following still works when there is a clearly defined trend on the higher time frames, just never ever try to fade the trend (going short when you see successive HHs and HLs) or predict a trend reversal before you see one. Those trades rarely work out, the payout is rarely worth it even if they do work for you.

Wow! Its like we are twins, I couldn't say it any better.

 

[Blackdollars]

This is bad information. The shortest intervals in fact offer the highest probabilities. Transaction costs are the challenge to profitability here.

FS

This is untrue (based on personal experience). Longer time frames shows you more define trends. Trading in the short term is too unpredictable. Are you willing to show us your results trading on short term charts for the last 3 months?

 

[Windlesham1]

There are many traps in trading.
1. Back testing is at best 50% accurate-why? Because you won't take 100% of the trades,but you will miss most of the winners,and take 100% of the losers.
2. Options are the most forgiving instrument to trade,and the most complicated to understand.
That's why most traders fail with futures/forex/stocks. Way too much risk for zero return-you will buy at the top and sell at the bottom.You will make 10% and risk 100% and with slippage and costs,that's more like 5%,so your risk remains huge. You have to be right all the time with directional trades.
3. Most people look at the wrong things. VIX tells you more than the indexes themselves in my opinion.
4. after 15 years, I've had 2 losing years,stupidly, but I'm a pussy when it comes to trade size and only ever trade 25% of my account, and risk 2%. I believe that trading should be in company and have never found an honest trading buddy who uses options here in the UK,otherwise I'd be very rich.

 

[Blackdollars]

You've described marriage, Eddie = finance all her whims and fantasies, then the babies and their education, get no sex after the first 6 months or so, then in the doghouse for the duration. Our plans going forward? Rent, rent, rent.

Is it just me or does AfterLOS have a few loose screws.

There are many traps in trading.
1. Back testing is at best 50% accurate-why? Because you won't take 100% of the trades,but you will miss most of the winners,and take 100% of the losers.
2. Options are the most forgiving instrument to trade,and the most complicated to understand.
That's why most traders fail with futures/forex/stocks. Way too much risk for zero return-you will buy at the top and sell at the bottom.You will make 10% and risk 100% and with slippage and costs,that's more like 5%,so your risk remains huge. You have to be right all the time with directional trades.
3. Most people look at the wrong things. VIX tells you more than the indexes themselves in my opinion.
4. after 15 years, I've had 2 losing years,stupidly, but I'm a pussy when it comes to trade size and only ever trade 25% of my account, and risk 2%. I believe that trading should be in company and have never found an honest trading buddy who uses options here in the UK,otherwise I'd be very rich.

1. What methodology are you using when you say that the person will miss most winners but take 100% of the losers? What makes you sure about those numbers.

2. Why do you think you have to be right 100% of the time in "directional trades". Why do you think Options are most forgiving?

3. Your thoughts are interesting, are you willing to post your last 3 months of trading history?

 

[Windlesham1]

1. It's called reality-and unless you have a black box-which will work for a short while before meltdown-and you have to understand when it is melting down, not the why.Choose any method you like- there are more skint forex traders than ....... you make up the saying.
2. I have just explained the numbers-you will miss many of the winning trades,beat yourself up about it and take the next 4 losers,then lose your nerve. You will take profits too early too. so P&L will be negative.

3.my last 3 months' trades all small winners- typically 5% ROCE,plus one that is 25% ROCE, same for ther last 36 months-but 2010 I had a losing year and lost the plot somewhat