Any long term strugglers out there?

[Eddiemorra]

Someone could start their trading career and decide upon a certain moving average crossover system, and they might make money over a 2 year period.
But this would just be because the market conditions happened to suit their moving average choice.
That person thinks they have an aamzing edge, but soon they'll give all of their winnings back.

Someone mentioned arbitrage vs punting. I think they're right. I think that it is possible to make money trading, but just not in the way that everybody here is trying to do (including me).
I think There isn't a method or way of reading the charts that can give you any sort of edge.

 

[Turveyd]

Someone could start their trading career and decide upon a certain moving average crossover system, and they might make money over a 2 year period.
But this would just be because the market conditions happened to suit their moving average choice.
That person thinks they have an aamzing edge, but soon they'll give all of their winnings back.

Someone mentioned arbitrage vs punting. I think they're right. I think that it is possible to make money trading, but just not in the way that everybody here is trying to do (including me).
I think There isn't a method or way of reading the charts that can give you any sort of edge.

My account proves otherwise I'm very happy to say, you just haven't found it yet.

To be honest, it's less about a method and more about racking up 1000nd's of hours of experience.

You have to continually assess your edge and make changes to your edge to suite the current market conditions, I do this live all the time to keep on top of the game.

 

[jb3398]

Brett Steenbarger posted to his blog the other day some stats on daytraders. It should give some insight into this question. According to one 15 year study about 13% of daytraders are able to turn a profit after fees in a given year, but only 0.28% are able to do it year after year after year.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/08/what-proportion-of-daytraders-actually.html

So yeah, lots of strugglers. When it comes to daytrading, it would appear almost everyone (99+%) is "struggling".

Let me tell you, I have heard some depressing stories. Last year I lurked in a couple of chatrooms after hours and read chatlogs where guys talked about their lengthy struggles trying to trade futures. A common refrain was that despite the negative impact on their lives they felt they were "in too deep to turn back now". I was almost speechless after reading some of that stuff. Cautionary tales for sure. Those guys will probably need some of kind of therapy before they can move on with their lives.

When you read about losers all you will get is depressing news. There are lots of daytraders who trade for a living with no other source of income. These traders trade with retail accounts.
If your a licensed professional with a Series56, unless your trying to live beyond your means. With a decent account of >$100K, you should easily earn $52K your first year which is about $200 a day. If you can't earn $200 a day using either a professional or retail account your in the wrong line of work!

 

[jb3398]

Trading is a flip of the coin and all dumb luck most of the time. The fact is you can't predict the future. And black swans occur. You just need to ignore the blatant cases of shilling that goes on here e.g. ppl encouraging others to open futures accounts with $3K etc.

The reality is a lot of people in the industry make money providing a service as the middle man to earn an 'honest' salary. E.g. market makers that are position neutral. E.g. Broker/dealers that facilitate orders for you and help you achieve the risk exposure you desire. E.g. Analysts who through all good intentions offers an opinion but have no skin in the game. E.g. hedge fund managers that charge 2-20 fees and take a cut of principle and performance so are salaried no matter what. E.g. investment advisers who take kick backs. The list goes on. Lots of middle man taking cuts. Everybody else that is left are the speculators. I don't care if its long term or short term day trading. Everyone else is a speculator because you are betting on something you have no control over and you can't see the future. Speculators can make a lot of money when they bet correctly and the world agrees with them. Or they can lose a lot if wrong. But speculators are just betters and gamblers. You must accept that if you want to continue in this line of business. You are a professional gambler.

Now that you have accepted you are a gambler no matter whether you are a 'buy and hold' or 'day trader'. That said, there are still strategies to gambling. Having a strategy is better than going blind. There are better setups than bad setups. E.g. the market has an upward bias due to money flow and central banking manipulation, vested interests and the encouragement they have to the upside of markets (due to pension fund liabilities); government bailouts of failed companies in our "free market". So, clearly betting on the long side has a better chance of winning than the short side right off the bat, statistically speaking, though the rate of rise is slower than rate of fall. So if your strategy is based on playing on the short side, the odds are stacked against you already.

So, with a strategy at hand, whatever it is, and add in good risk control (limiting loss of capital), you at least have better odds of making it than a gambler going in blind. Just to keep sane about what you're doing, I think traders should never be complacent or think of this as anything other than glorified gambling because investing is speculation, and speculation is just gambling at the heart of it.

By reading this post the author is definitely someone who lacks experience.

 

[jb3398]

Never knew a person who could make money day in and day out daytrading reading charts alone. You have to be able to read the tape and take a longer time frame view to maximize your winners.

That's how I make my money reading charts alone and have been pretty successful at it.

 

[eurusdzn]

Someone could start their trading career and decide upon a certain moving average crossover system, and they might make money over a 2 year period.
But this would just be because the market conditions happened to suit their moving average choice.
That person thinks they have an aamzing edge, but soon they'll give all of their winnings back.

Someone mentioned arbitrage vs punting. I think they're right. I think that it is possible to make money trading, but just not in the way that everybody here is trying to do (including me).
I think There isn't a method or way of reading the charts that can give you any sort of edge.

Seems to me like you are saying that many systems will go to hell without trend.
Prices ranging seem to be more common. Dont markets trend only 30% of the time?
It would not surprise me to find that some traders specialize in trading range.
Seems tougher to trade range though
I dont mean ES 5 minute chop but more along the lines of a curency in a defined channel
for weeks. A high winning percentage and leverage can overcome small gains and that
always difficult "let profits run" mantra may not apply. Just a theory i have. Nothing solid.

 

[AfterLOS]

The market only goes in the direction that my analysis anticipates it will go, about 50% of the time.

With that 50% correctness you are already the most fortunate trader alive if only you cut the losses fast on the other 50%

 

[AfterLOS]

"you are probably the only person in the world who thinks its easier to spot a trend on the lower time frames."

Greetings,

In my opinion, I do not believe that finding a trend on a lower timeframe chart is any more difficult than finding a trend on a higher timeframe chart,...or on any chart for that matter. In my opinion, a chart, is a chart, is a chart. I believe the truth of the matter is, that if you were to remove the horizontal and vertical side scales from any chart, one would honestly be hard pressed to tell what timeframe the chart really is, or whether the chart was even upside down. To my understanding, the principles of price structure are homogeneous and fractal in nature, throughout all timeframes, and even if the chart is upside down.

However, I am keenly interested in learning the reasoning and the technical premise behind the statement made by Trickshot. I am open to new ideas, and I am not afraid to learn something new, because that is why I am here on ET.

KDASFTG

Excellent post, and outstanding attitude, KDSSFTG.

 

[AfterLOS]

I feel slightly alone, though.

Try missing a couple of payments as a solution

 

[AfterLOS]

I find it hard to believe that it's actually possible to succeed at this 'long term' coming at it from a charting angle (which is what i've always tried)
(I know of a few legitimate/rich traders who advise against charts/Technical Analysis/price action etc)


The market is good at fooling you into thinking you have an 'edge'.
Even with 'context', chart patterns tend to 'work' as much as they don't.

I feel slightly alone, though.

I'm sure there's others out there (the current state of the pnl thread would suggest so, compared to the olden days), but even with the anonymity of the internet, some might
be too embarrassed to admit such failings.



thanks

You're abs correct on all counts, Eddie. There is only one thing you can be sure of when in the markets. You will sleep like a baby = wake up every hour and cry.