Your question is a good one. The answer is "experience". After doing this a number of years, I see that volatility ebbs and flows like ocean tides. There are 52 weeks in a year and I use a calendar to outline seasonal volatility changes. I keep the calendars and after a while I can see patterns in how volatile each week was. Other sources of seasonal volatility info include the Yale Hirsch book.
As you know, no method of estimation is foolproof. There are plenty of times when I have been wrong. Fortunately I am correct enough to make a living.
Good luck everyone.
Lefty
As you know, no method of estimation is foolproof. There are plenty of times when I have been wrong. Fortunately I am correct enough to make a living.
Good luck everyone.
Lefty