Any Ex-bund bobl traders finding more success in other markets?

I find cash follows futures and not the other way round. Futures definitely moves a few milliseconds first. Well maybe this could be cuz we're using Hotspot which is slow.
Hotspot is expensive!!!!! for futures we get $1 round trip.

Quote from mokwit:

Agree, Good thing about FX futures is that bids/offers seem posted purely following the cash which is made up of multiple (multiple) market makers so more difficult to play airpocket games. Moves in response to bids/offers being pulled/added in response to cash rather than chewed through by order flow. For this reason don't seem to get the cues from volume, DoM and tape that I do in other markets so don't really watch them the way I would in other markets. Most of cash market is bank dealers but Corporate Treasurers could be regarded as the 'paper'.


There are still spikes and stop runs - I suspect a lot of spikes are often not caused by one big player trying to manipulate but by a lumpy client order coming in and the head honch asking for quotes from all on the floor, and the rest of the market gets wind of this and pulls bids/offers accordingly.

Beware at very thin times Christmas definitely manipulated then.
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Quote from londonfxguy:

I find cash follows futures and not the other way round. Futures definitely moves a few milliseconds first. Well maybe this could be cuz we're using Hotspot which is slow.
Hotspot is expensive!!!!! for futures we get $1 round trip.
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are you saying that its cheaper to transact in the futures than the cash??

i dont know, but i would have thought it would be the other way round. in the spot market you dont have to put up cash overnight like you do in futures cos its otc - commission aside, i would have thought this was significant - i guess this is only in the case of a bank though, not those trading spot fx via a broker.
 
Futures tends to move in response to someone pulling a bid/offer and no one replacing it rather than actually moving it which is what Hotspot and IB do. The futures certainly jiggle 1-2 pips around ahead of the cash but if the futures move away from the cash they move right back unless the cash confirms the move i.e. they jiggle right back so limited scope for games as you will get picked off if you are out of line - (but probably not worth a mainstream bank dealers while for nominal 100 contracts as thisis pretty much regular size on EBS so why bother).

Hotspot, or for that matter IB have the potential to be both behind or ahead of of best BBO in the market as its just a handful of banks quoting not the entire interbank market hence 2 not 1 pip and does not always move as their quotes reflect inventory position and view and client orders, not the entire market. Also the feed going to Hotspot may (may) not be the same as the one going to EBS - banks can and do quote different prices for different customers. They seem to lag to me and are often out of line with each other and another feed by as much as 1- 2 pips - at any one time. Might be deliberately higher or lower in order to rebalance inventory or reflect a view. I gather the people market futs making are using Currenex or EBS which will show the entire interbank market.

Was not on an actual bank desk so if a futs prop or bank dealer wants to come in and clarify I would be interested.
 
It reminds me of FESX circa 1999. Kinda rangey, then it gives it to you, right in the Gary! Won't be touching it tomorrow, on the 75 tick Bund rally, but after that i plan on giving back some profits in it. Success, CB :D
 
Quote from TGM:

Volume in the Euro futures can be deceptive. There are market makers working for the Merc keeping it tight with size day and night. I think it is a product that will grow. Plenty of oppty to make some money IMO.
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Your'e quite I think. The actual volume bears no relationship to the avaiable liquidity - it is a seriously good product to trade.

I would trade this over the bund everytime. In fact I haven't traded the bund for nearly a year now. Or had a drink, done drugs, had sex.......

Well, serious about the bund anyway.

Enjoy the weekend,

ps - the one other thing - it wasn't hard to get short the Euro on the number - I'd like to have seen the bund traders try and get anything off-

just as an aside, an old mate told me just yesterday that most of the paper only uses the bund to hedge in times of great vol - otherwise it's otc - so by definition, unless the bund is rocking, it ain't rocking.

ciao
 
Quote from Everest:

ps - the one other thing - it wasn't hard to get short the Euro on the number - I'd like to have seen the bund traders try and get anything off-

just as an aside, an old mate told me just yesterday that most of the paper only uses the bund to hedge in times of great vol - otherwise it's otc - so by definition, unless the bund is rocking, it ain't rocking.

ciao [/B]
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Interesting side note about the number being able to get stuff off on the euro. The bund was gone before it hit the bloomberg page.

By the way can you explain your other comment a little more about what your friend told you about the bund and using it only to hedge because they mostly trade otc. I thought most all the volume was in the futures contract and not the underlying cash product. Is this right or am I missing what you were saying?
 
That is interesting to hear that you have not traded the bund much in the last year since that used to be your main product for so long.
 
Quote from downtickboy:

Interesting side note about the number being able to get stuff off on the euro. The bund was gone before it hit the bloomberg page.

By the way can you explain your other comment a little more about what your friend told you about the bund and using it only to hedge because they mostly trade otc. I thought most all the volume was in the futures contract and not the underlying cash product. Is this right or am I missing what you were saying?
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No, apparently the paper is generally just doing otc and a little on eurex. There is no way of tracking the volume of the cash if it is otc. the only time they use eurex in size is when the market is really motoring, as it would take too long to go otc. also, a large percentage used to be on the basis, but i gather this is slowing also.

All in all it just means that individuals in size can just move the market around without banging heads with the paper too often. and if the size trader is trading as much as 20 percent of the market, maybe even more, than he can control the market to a reasonable degree becasue he of all people can see when the paper is coming in. A long time before us.

Of course this is just my opinion, and I'm sure many will disagree, but for me the hard fact of the matter is it's a damn site easier to make big ticks in the euro than the bund.

cheers
 
Quote from Everest:

No, apparently the paper is generally just doing otc and a little on eurex. There is no way of tracking the volume of the cash if it is otc. the only time they use eurex in size is when the market is really motoring, as it would take too long to go otc. also, a large percentage used to be on the basis, but i gather this is slowing also.

All in all it just means that individuals in size can just move the market around without banging heads with the paper too often. and if the size trader is trading as much as 20 percent of the market, maybe even more, than he can control the market to a reasonable degree becasue he of all people can see when the paper is coming in. A long time before us.

Of course this is just my opinion, and I'm sure many will disagree, but for me the hard fact of the matter is it's a damn site easier to make big ticks in the euro than the bund.

cheers
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Thanks for the enlightening info. Was there any reason given to why the paper is going the route of the otc market instead of being traded in the futures market?
 
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