Its funny you mentioned that because after living in Washington state for only a few years, we are selling this house and are going to move back to CA for the 3rd time in 19 years.
WA has too much summer smoke and the winters are too cold.
Any bear traders out there.
- Thread starter viruscore1
- Start date
Its funny you mentioned that because after living in Washington state for only a few years, we are selling this house and are going to move back to CA for the 3rd time in 19 years.
WA has too much summer smoke and the winters are too cold.
Well, the best place to build right now would be on a parcel of land in Paradise CA. Now that it all burnt to a crisp, it will take many years for the trees and underbrush to build back up to a point where there will be a fire risk.
I use to be a tree-hugger until I moved to Montana and then Washington State.
Now I say, "cut them all down before they burn all summer long!"
No kidding,
3 years in Montana: smoke from fires all summer long every year.
4 summers in Washington state: smoke from fires all summer long 3 out of 4 years.
I had lived in CA most of my life, rarely ever smoke.
What happening in CA this year is a rare occurrence.
In Montana, WA (and most other northern heavily forested states), its a normal summer occurrence.
(And I have severe Asthma)
"We are at the point where we don't ever want to see another tree!"
[Gaps Fill]
One of the lessons that really sticks with me from my Pristine training about 20 years ago is:
"Gaps Get Filled."
What they mean by this is if you are in a Downtrend and the market has a Counter-Trend Rally within the Bigger Picture Downtrend that leaves "Gap Ups," like you see on October 31st and November 7th of the 1 Month, Daily Candle Chart of the SP500 below, those Gap Ups will get filled when the Overall Bigger Picture Trend resumes its course.
[SP500, 1 month, daily candles]
One of the lessons that really sticks with me from my Pristine training about 20 years ago is:
"Gaps Get Filled."
What they mean by this is if you are in a Downtrend and the market has a Counter-Trend Rally within the Bigger Picture Downtrend that leaves "Gap Ups," like you see on October 31st and November 7th of the 1 Month, Daily Candle Chart of the SP500 below, those Gap Ups will get filled when the Overall Bigger Picture Trend resumes its course.
[SP500, 1 month, daily candles]
[Inverse Correlation]
[Short to Intermediate Term Downtrend]
Below is a 2 month chart of the SP500 with daily candles and the 50 day moving average.
Notice the SP500 is below the declining 50dma, which indicates a short to intermediate term downtrend.
[SP500, 2 months, daily candles, 50dma]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[Short to Intermediate Term Uptrend]
Below is a 2 month chart of the VIX with daily candles and the 50 day moving average.
Notice the VIX is above the rising 50dma, which indicates a short to intermediate term Uptrend.
[VIX, 2 months, daily candles, 50dma]
[Short to Intermediate Term Downtrend]
Below is a 2 month chart of the SP500 with daily candles and the 50 day moving average.
Notice the SP500 is below the declining 50dma, which indicates a short to intermediate term downtrend.
[SP500, 2 months, daily candles, 50dma]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[Short to Intermediate Term Uptrend]
Below is a 2 month chart of the VIX with daily candles and the 50 day moving average.
Notice the VIX is above the rising 50dma, which indicates a short to intermediate term Uptrend.
[VIX, 2 months, daily candles, 50dma]
The Major indexes: SP500 (black line), Dow30 (blue line), Nasdaq (brown line), on this 2018 percentage gain/loss "year to date chart," is pretty much at "net zero" for 2018.
In last 10 years (2008 to 2017), the SP500 has only had a down monthly closing in December
1 time (2015). It gives hope for a Santa rally next month in December.
[SP500, 10 years, monthly candles, 40 month moving average]
_______________________________________________________________________
From the short to intermediate term, the SP500 has been under a declining 50 day moving average since October 10, 2018.
From a hopeful standpoint, the waves down are no longer making lower lows.
In fact its starting to look like a trade range from the low 2600's range to 2810.
For there to be the potential for a Santa rally, the SP500 needs to break above the 50 day moving average and stay there.
[SP500, 2 months, daily candles, 50ma]
1 time (2015). It gives hope for a Santa rally next month in December.
[SP500, 10 years, monthly candles, 40 month moving average]
_______________________________________________________________________
From the short to intermediate term, the SP500 has been under a declining 50 day moving average since October 10, 2018.
From a hopeful standpoint, the waves down are no longer making lower lows.
In fact its starting to look like a trade range from the low 2600's range to 2810.
For there to be the potential for a Santa rally, the SP500 needs to break above the 50 day moving average and stay there.
[SP500, 2 months, daily candles, 50ma]
In the next few days we will find out if the 2 month trade range (low 2600's to low 2800's)
will either:
1: hold near the bottom of the range and go back up near the top, or
2: break down to make lower low's.
will either:
1: hold near the bottom of the range and go back up near the top, or
2: break down to make lower low's.
%%Here is an interesting thought: (Please don't misinterpret my meaning)
(A) In the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis, Real Estate Mortgage Bonds (MBS: Mortgage Backed Securities) started the Crisis that took down the economies of the world.
In baseball terms, Real Estate Mortgage Bonds were the "Lead Off Hitter" in the Crisis.
(B) It is very possible today that the Real Estate Industry could be giving us a Leading Indicator of future problems. Is it once again trying to be the Lead Off Hitter?"
Look at the 3 year chart of the Real Estate Builders and Material Suppliers ETF called NAIL.
Its down -74.85% since the January 2018 high!
[NAIL, 3 years, monthly candles]
Well its leading indicator for housing prices average, [with the new tariffs,Canadian lumber]LOL. I use a 200 dma myself.RE is so location specific, i never average all RE together.
